Swing Trade Idea – January 25, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.2% Currencies: USA +.01%
·
News: USA: GDP, Durable goods 830ET New home sales 10ET; Bond
auctions 13ET, Yellen 1330ET EUR: rate statement 815ET
Stocks: IBM +7%, AMSC +18%, NOK +8%, TAL 6%, NOW +0.8%, eps TSLA -8%, HUM
-13%, BA -2.6%
·
Overview: USA SPY 485.5 support 485 483 and resistance 488
490. SPY expected move +/- 2.5, QQQ 426.5 with resistance 429
430 and support 425 422 ; expected move 3.6. USA indices are flat, and
foreign indices ex-China are red ahead of ECB rate decision and USA GDP. Macro
set-up is neutral with US$ flat and long yields slightly higher. TSLA has moved
down more than the expected move but is being papered over by MSFT, NVDA,
GOOGL. Semis are still surging to the stratosphere, potentially a pop and drop.
AAPL is down slightly on Chinese market penetration news (not new). HUM
earnings is hitting the healthcare insurers again. Cannabis stocks had a strong
day which may mean some one is front running a govt reclassification. GDP may
change the picture and take care at 13ET and 1330 with bond auction and Yellen.
Wed Today daily expected move levels: SPY (487.9-482.9), QQQ
(429.4-422.2), IWM (197.9-190.8), SPX(4893-4843).
Stocks to watch NFLX, SAP, EDU, AMD, TSLA, AU, TXN, DD, T, ABT, Spec Names SMCI
Pre-800ET
Earnings TSLA, IBM, NOW, LRCX, CSX,
LVS, URI, STX, KNX, CMCSA, UNP, BX, SHW, NOC, HUM, TAL
Indices JETS, SMH, MSOS, GDX, XLE, USO, XLU, IWM, XLY, ARKK,
S&P500 IBM,
AAL, PARA, BX, LVS, WRK, CMSA, NEE, AMD, DAL, NVDA, LUV, INTC, HUM, TSLA,
SHW, UNH, NOC, BA, CVS, VFC, PFE, F
Movers IBM, TAL, AAL, PARA, EDU, BX, LVS, M, NTES, CMCSA, WRK, BE, NEE,
BEKE, AMD, UAL, INTC, NVDA, TSM, FUTU, DAL, JD, AU, MARA, ASML, PDD, COLB, HUM,
DWAC, TSLA, SHW, UNH, NOC, SPR, CVS, BA, VFC, RIVN, STM, F
Trade Idea: TSLA
TSLA 189.9 has moved > expected move with potential to continue lower. Below 190 potential targets 187.5 185. Likely will bounce at open with short covering. Bounces < 195 are likely new fade opportunities