Swing Trade Idea – January 26, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.03% Currencies: USA -.25%
·
News: USA: USA PCE 830ET; New home sales 10ET EUR: ECB
members talking down March rate cut
Stocks: LVMHUY +6.8%, CMSA +.3%, AXP +2.2%, BAH +4.7%, CL +.5%, eps V -2.4%, INTC
-9.4%, KLAC -3%
·
Overview: USA SPY 487.5 support 485 and resistance 490.
SPY expected move +/- 2.7 QQQ 424.5 with resistance 425 430 and
support 423 ; expected move 3.5. USA indices are mixed with small caps
and spec tech higher and Nasi negative which premarket suggests rotation ahead
of PCE. Macro is set-up to front run a lower PCE with yields and US$ lower
which if it occurs may benefit the small caps, profitless tech and high short
interest with converse true. INTC weak forecast is slightly denting semis
premarket but tiny compared to historical. Bitcoin bouncing potentially front
running weak PCE and can continue if PCE is low. Look for late day movement in
indices today. Today daily expected move levels: SPY (490.7-485.3),
QQQ (429.9-422.9), IWM (198.4-193.6), SPX(4920.8-4867.6).
Stocks to watch TSLA, BAH, AMZN, V, INTC, AMD, Spec Names PDD, COIN,
Pre-800ET
Earnings V, INTC, TMUS, KLAC, AJG,
COF, LHX, FICO, WY, WDC, AXP, CL, NSC, VLVLY
Indices /BTC, ARKK, EFA, euro, GDX, XLU, FEZ, XLV, KWEB, SOXX, USO, XLK, QQQ, faangmt, DBC, EEM
S&P500 BF,
AXP, TMO, DHR, EL, WRK, TSLA, INTC, KLAC, V, TMUS, WDC, AMAT, AMD,
LHX, MU, QCOM, MA, MCHP
Movers MARA, RIOT, COIN, AVTR, PINS, SNAP, GFI, MSTR, UL, RIOT, TSLA, INTC, KLAC,
V, STM, PDD, TMUS, BIDU, WDC, JD, TCEHY, AMD, AMAT, ZIM
Trade Idea: INTC
INTC has moved lower greater than the expected move and hence risk for continuation lower but can also bounce. Premarket block trades at 44.75 set a line in the sand. Potential bounce > 45 and fade < 43.5 premarket low. AMD, NVDA are down in sympathy which can also be candidates in either direction though odds favor buys.