Swing Trade Idea – January 29, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.6% Currencies: USA +.13%
·
News: USA: Loan officer survey; Middle east concern on USA
response to attack on base on Syrian/Jordan border. Lifting gold and supporting
oil China: Evergrande being wound up
Stocks: SOFI +11% eps PHG -8% halting
sleep apnea devices in USA; AMD +1.8%, MSFT +.7% pre-earnings
fever
·
Overview: USA SPY 487.7 support 486.5 485 and resistance
490. SPY expected move +/- 2.3 QQQ 424.5 with resistance 425
430 and support 423 420 ; expected move 3.1. USA indices are muted with
Nasi leading and R2K lagging. Macro is mixed with 30Y yield -.7% but US$ +.2%
and equity volatility rising into what may be a volatile week. Lack of economic
and earnings data is leading to default buying of MAG7 and semis with stocks
reporting this week being bought on autopilot [AMD MSFT]. Bitcoin bounce
juicing the usual suspects. Middle east is lifting shippers [ZIM STNG] and
watch the energy stocks to see if there is continuation after Friday’s surge
but so far quiet. Gold is getting a boost from Middle East and lower yields and
silver is bouncing, but rest of industrial metals are not. Look
for late day movement in indices today. Today’s daily expected move
levels: SPY (489.7-485.1) QQQ (426.9-420.7), IWM (198-194)
SPX(4913.9-4868).
Stocks to watch: ZIM, SOFI, MSFT, TSLA, AMD, SLV, TLT, PHG, Spec Names MARA, COIN,
GFI, SMCI
Pre-800ET
Earnings: SOFI
Indices: GDX, TLT, GLD, SMH, faangmt, SOXX, BLOK, ARKK, XLK, LIT, USO, euro, JETS, XLF
S&P500:
ADM, AMD, WDC, AAL, TSLA, WBD, PYPL,
WRK, ALB
Movers: ZIM, ZI, GFI, S, MARA, ADM, SMCI, BTI, AU, AMD, RIOT, AAL, LI, WDC,
COIN, PHG, BE, VERA, PDD, GCT, JKS, MOR, WBD, STLA
Trade Idea: SOFI
SOFI is a top mover premarket earnings with a profitable quarter. Premarket high 8.96 and expected move is to 9. Consider long > 9 for a gamma squeeze to potentially 10 and 11. Pullback to >8.5 could be used for a long. Below 8.5 risk of full retracement