Swing Trade Idea – February 13, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global
Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global
set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.05% Currencies: USA -.1%
·
News: USA: CPI 830ET UK: UE rate 3.8% vs 4% JPY:
Tool orders y/y -14% EUR: ZEW sentiment 25 vs 21
Stocks: CDNS -8%, LSCC -5.8%, TDC -13%, HAS -11%, MAR -2.8%, SHOP -8.6%,
DDOG -7.4%, GFS -4%, WM +2.9%, ZI +19%, BRKR +5%, LDOS +2.6% eps
Overview: USA SPY 499 support 497.7 495 and resistance 504.3
505. SPY expected move +/- 3.3 QQQ 432.3 with resistance 440
439.6 and support 431.1 430; expected move +/- 4.3. USA indices are
lower premarket with IWM outperforming and QQQ lagging. Monday NYSE breadth was
strong however MAG7 and AI names were sold and premarket looks like
continuation. GS high short interest basket was up 4% Monday. Macro factors
(pre-CPI) are supportive with long yields lower, US$ lower however oil higher
is supportive to inflation. CPI will be market moving with usual reaction to a
higher print: bonds and equities lower and converse. Implied volatility is
elevated and should daily expected moves hold, potential for bounce. QQQ is the
risk index with QQQ 430 an important level to hold. Breaches of daily
expected moves can lead to larger moves. Today’s daily expected move levels:
SPY (504.3-497.7), QQQ (439.6-431.1), IWM (207.7-198.3),
SPX(5054.5-4989).
Stocks to watch: KO, NEM, NVDA, SHOP, DDOG, SMH, Spec Names:
CLSK, SMCI
Pre-800ET
Earnings: ANET, CAR, CDNS, GT, LSCC,
SBLK, TDC, WM, ZI, BIIB, BRKR, DDOG, HAS, KO, SHOP, TAP, WCC,
Indices: VXX, USO, XLE, GLD, GDX, TLT, euro, SMH, faangmt, XLK, /btc, ARKK,
FDN, IGV, XLY, FEZ
S&P500:
KO, HAS, CDNS, ANET, MAR, ETSY, MU, PYPL, MSFT, UBER
Movers: ZI, TRIP, GCT, KO, FRO, SNAP, BE, GLBE, PARA, VKTX, RXRX, FUTU, TDC, HAS,
SHOP, CDNS, ANET, DDOG, ARM, LSCC, INMD, GFS
Trade Idea: IWM
IWM is reversing on the CPI print with the bottom of the daily expected move 198.3 a level to watch. Premarket low 197.9 is a level which can be used for a fade. Above 198.3 potential to bounce to 199.5 with the notion that the rotation can continue. Top of weekly expected move 203.3