Swing Trade Idea – February 28, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative equity global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.3% Currencies: USA$ +.2%
·
News: USA: GDP 8:30 ET; FOMC Williams 12:45 ET
Stocks: BIDU-3%, IAS-25%, AMBA+8.7%, BYND+64%, FLYW+20%, RY+.3%,
VIPS+6.7%, FSLR+5.8%, EBAY+4%, eps
Overview: USA SPY 505.4 with support at 505 and 502, and resistance at 509
and 510; SPY expected move +/- 2.1. QQQ 436 with resistance at 437 and
440, and support at 435 and 434; QQQ expected move +/-2.8. Equity market is
positioned risk-off ahead of GDP print with large caps outperforming small
caps, US$ higher and long yields lower. Indices are close to major gamma/daily
expected move with risk for a stronger move lower should GDP reaction be
negative. Otherwise may return to casino mode with small caps and spec stocks
outperforming. Bitcoin related names are still being squeezed into EOM as
usual but are getting very stretched. Breaches of daily expected moves
can lead to larger moves. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (509-504.8),
QQQ (440.4-434.8), IWM (205.9-202.1) and SPX (5099.6-5056.8).
Stocks to watch FSLR, TSLA, TLT, EBAY, AMD, BIDU
Spec Names CPNG, VIPS, BYND
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices /btc, VXX, TLT, UUP, KWEB, EEM, USO, IWM, EFA, EWZ, SOXX,
GDX, SMH, QQQ, XLF, XBI
S&P500 FSLR, EBAY,
ALB, MU, PANW, MOS
Movers ACMR, CPNG, VIPS, AAP, MARA, MSTR, FSLR, CLSK, GOGL, EBAY, COIN,
RIOT, RVLV, IAS, LMND, RXRX, BMBL, ARRY, BILI, BIDU, LI, JD, TGTX, BABA, TAL,
BROS, ARM, MU, PANW, SMCI
Trade Idea: IWM
IWM has been the leader into month end but leading to the downside ahead of GDP print. Straddle approach: Long > 203 with targets 204, 205 and fade below 202 with target 200.