Swing Trade Idea – March 5, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral Mild Negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.5% Currencies: USA$ +.06%
·
News: USA: ISM Services PMI 10:00 ET; FOMC Barr 12, 15:30 ET
China: Caixin Services PMI 52.5 weaker than expected.
Stocks: TGT+7%, PAY +18%, AVAV+17%, GTLB-22%, SEMR-14%, SFIX-14%, eps AAPL -1.9%, China
sales- TSLA -1.7% China sales-
Overview: USA SPY 510.9 with support at 510 and 508, and resistance at
515; SPY expected move +/- 2.1. QQQ 441.7 with resistance at 445 and 450,
and support at 440 and 437; QQQ expected move +/-4.4. USA indices are lower
premarket with Russell2000 and QQQ lagging. AAPL, GOOGL, TSLA continue to weigh
on large cap indices with NVDA trying to counterbalance. Negative AMD
news regarding sales to China is weighing on the stock and infecting semis.
NVDA is currently impervious as it is being driven by flows but on watch.
Markets are configured risk-off with bonds, US$, Yen, Gold higher so watch SPY
510, QQQ 440 levels as breach can lead to larger declines. ISM at 10:00 ET is a
pivotal time today. As long as SPX is greater than 5000 look for bounces to be
bought as 0DTE expiration puts cover. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY
(514.4-510.2), QQQ (448.5-439.6), IWM (207.9-203.5), and SPX (5152-5109.8). SPX
Call wall (resistance) shifted to 5200 and Put Wall (support) to 5040.
Stocks to watch TGT, NVDA, GLD, AMD, AAPL, TSLA
Spec Names SE, AVAV, DWAC, GTLB, MARA
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices VIX, GDX, NVDA, TLT, XLP, GLD, COPX, KWEB, FXI, XLK, IBIT,
QQQ
S&P500 TGT, DVA,
BAX, ALB, AAPL, TSLA, AMD, PANW, MU, ORCL, LLY
Movers TGT, DVA, BAX, FRO, DWAC, AU, COIN, SE, LI, GOLD, NVDA, GTLB, ALB,
FERG, MARA, MSTR, RIOT, SQM, TSLA, AAPL, JD, BIDU, FUTU, GFS, CELH, CRWD, AMD,
PLTR, IONQ, RXRX
Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL is below the expected move and approaching the 170 level which can serve as either a bounce level or acceleration given the put positioning. Break of 170 may lead to 165 and a bounce to 175, 180.