Swing Trade Idea – March 8, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.18% Currencies: USA$ -.01%
·
News: USA:Non-farm payrolls 830 ET CDN: Jobs
report JPN: Household spending -6.3% y/y
Stocks: IOT+14%, DOCU+16%, GPS+8%, AVGO -1.5%, MRVL -5.7%,
COST -4%, MDB -8.5%, eps
Overview: USA SPY 514.3, support 513 511 510 and resistance
515 518 520. SPY expected move +/- 3.35. QQQ 444.8 with resistance,
445 450 and support 440 437 ; expected move +/-5.79. USA indices
are down slightly ahead of the USA jobs report at 830ET. Semis are again bid
despite AVGO providing a weaker forecast after company mentioned future growth
in AI which reversed NVDA TSM SMCI. COST missed revenue which may weigh on
retailers. MDB provided poor guidance which is weighing on software including
MSFT. MAG7 are mixed with NVDA again leading and supporting market cap
weighted indices. Macro is bullish ahead of the pivotal jobs report with yields
lower and USS$ lower. US$ and yields have been falling and risk is a move
higher on a strong report. IV is elevated into the print, which is a catalyst
to move indices higher on an inline report. Today’s daily expected move
levels: SPY (518.2-511.5), QQQ (451.3-439.7), IWM (210.3-203.6),
SPX(5190.9-5123.9). SPX Call wall (resistance) shifted to 5200 and Put
Wall (support) to 5040.
Stocks to watch NVDA, AMD, GPS, INTC, TSLA, COST, AVGO, MRVL, Spec Names
VKTX,
SMCI, IOT, CVNA
Pre-800ET
Earnings CIEN, KR, BURL, BJ, BILI, CNSW,
INFN, DSGX, YPF
Indices VIX, GDX, YEN, GLD, TLT, BITI, GDX, XLP, DIA, XLF, IWM, SPY
S&P500 BIIB, NVDA,
TSLA, INTC, MU, C, COST, AVGO
Movers IOT, DOCU, GPS, CVNA, UBS, NVDA, VKTX, GOGL, LI, SMCI, AU,
INTC, S, MU, AMLX, PBR, MDB, MRVL, COST, NVO, ASX, AVGO, ASML, CNHI
Trade Idea: TSLA
TSLA is a straddle idea. Long > 182.5 with target 185 and potential to squeeze higher above. Fade < 180 with target 175. Potential bounce today as weekly puts close or if market levitates post jobs report.