.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.9%  Currencies:  USA$  -.13% Vix: -4%

·         News:  USA: Retail Sales, Empire State mfg 8:30ET;  China: GDP tonight
Stocks: GS +3.5%, SCHW+0%  EPS AAPL -.6% Iphone sales down 10% (IDC) Samsung $6.4B USA grant;
TSLA 10% layoffs;  Copper Aluminum Nickel higher as USA and UK add sanctions to Russia AA CENX FCX

·         Overview: USA SPY 513 support 510 506  and resistance 515 518, SPY expected move +/- 5.2. QQQ 440 with resistance  443 445 and support 437 435 433 ; expected move +/-4.8. USA indices are higher due to geopolitical escalation over weekend. Retail sales  stronger than expected is negative for rate cut thesis and bearish for bonds and theory for equities however hedges added over weekend unwinding provides a bullish catalyst. Premarket the large cap SPY and QQQ are both higher with financials and MAG7 ex-AAPL&TSLA bouncing. Long yields moving sharply higher is a caution signal warning that the bounce may be transitory.  SPY 515 QQQ 440 key levels to regain/hold as a minimum to have a bullish posture. S&P is negative gamma and put dominated which leads to larger moves in either direction. SPX > 5150 is a good bull trigger level based on positioning and < 5145 a downside risk level.  Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (516-506), QQQ (443-433.5), IWM (201-196), SPX(5175-5071). 

Stocks to watch: GS, CNC, AA, CENX, ASML, TSLA, CRM, SCHW,

Spec Names: GCT, GFI, CPNG

Pre-800ET
Earnings: GS, SCHW, MTB
Indices: COPX, SLV, TSM, FXI, GDX, KWEB, EFA, BITI, VIX, BITO, TLT
S&P500: CNC, GS, CSCO, FCX, LMT, VFC, NEM, MS, META, MU, CRM, TSLA, WMB
Movers: CNC, AA, GS, GCT, AU, STLA, CENX, BEKE, RIO, JD, ASML, PHG, EH, CSCO, NVO, DB, GFI, STM, BHP, LMT, CPNG, NMRA, TRMD, CRM, INFA, TSLA, MSTR

Trade Idea: MSFT

MSFT is being targeted by option traders to the upside with 420 the key level to stay above. Expected range for day 428-415 and for week 433-410. Large call position at 425 can act as resistance and acceleration above.