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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.23% Currencies: USA$ 0% Vix: -.3%

·         News: USA: Powell 13:15 ET; Ind Prod 9:15 ET; China: GDP q/y 5.3% beat; Ind Prod 4.5% y/y missed CDN: CPI 8:30 ET
Stocks: UNH+7.5%, MS +3%, ERIC +7.7%, PNC0%, JNJ-0.1%, EPS, AMD+1%, upgrade

·         Overview: USA SPY 505.6 with support at 505 and 500, and resistance at 500 and 510; SPY expected move +/- 4.65.  QQQ 431.5 with resistance at 435 and 437, and support at 430, 426, and 425; QQQ expected move +/-4.47.  USA large cap indices are stable overnight but with negative gamma positioning potential for large drops in either direction. Liquidity was expected to drop Monday due to the tax deadline and the sharp move higher in bond volatility reduced liquidity. Higher inflation and weakness in Yen is pressuring yields higher which makes Powell’s comments today important. Vix term structure is concerning, but not yet inverted but watch today as inversion can cause a vol event. A popular trade has been to sell volatility and that trade is being tested. SPY 505 is a line in the sand for today with potential to move lower to 500. Gamma positioning should provide support at SPX5000 and if that level is reached a rebound or major breakdown is likely. Breadth is oversold and vol is high so need to keep an open mind to breakdowns or bounces. Since the bond market is driving the action, keep an eye on yields today and pay attention at 13:15 ET for Powell.  Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (509.1-499.8), QQQ (435.5-426.6), IWM (199-192.5), and SPX(5108-5015). 

Stocks to watch UNH, HUM, MS, ERIC, AMD, NVDA, TSLA

Spec Names ITCI

Pre-800ET
Earnings UNH, JNJ, BAC, MS, PNC, BK, ERIC, LVMUY
Indices DIA, XLV, SPY, XLF,, XLK, QQQ, COPX, GDX, IBIT, EFA, IWM, TLT, EWC, Yen
S&P500 UNH, HUM, CVS, MS, ELV, SMCI, IBM, GL, LYV, TSLA, FCX, ALB, NEM
Movers ITCI, MT, HIMS, EH, PAAS, BHP, SCCO, CLSK, MARA, GOLD, INFY, AA, BP, PDD, CLF, PLTR, COIN, TSM, AFRM

Trade Idea: AAPL

AAPL is holding up better than other MAG7 stocks. Countertrend as stock is in a downtrend but can consider a long idea > 172.5 with target 175, 180.