Swing Trade Idea – April 2, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.5% Currencies: USA$ -.14% Vix: +1.7%
·
News: USA: Jolts 10:00 ET; FOMC Bowman, Williams, Mester, Daly EUR:
German CPI 0.4% m/m MFG PMI 46.1 vs 45.7
Stocks: PVH -21%, GOEV -28%, EPS, CHX +9.5%, SLB, buying EV
China: March sales +.2% y/y UNH -4.4%, CVS -4.8%, ELV, CMS
announced rate increase for 2025 same as January announcement.
Overview: USA SPY 520.3 with support at 520 and 518, and resistance at
523 and 525; SPY expected move +/- 2.1. QQQ 442.8 with resistance at 445
and 447.6, and support at 442.3 and 440; QQQ expected move +/-2.7. USA
indices are risk-off with IWM and QQQ leading to the downside. Commodities
higher increases inflation concerns and long yields are rising pressuring rate
sensitive sectors. Strength in energy, metals, bitcoin and China and
weakness in semis, spec tech, healthcare insurance. Jolts report at 10:00 ET will
be market moving and may mark a turn if markets are lower into the open.
Levels to watch on pullback are SPY 520 and QQQ 440. Moves outside daily
expected moves can lead to much larger moves. Today’s daily expected move
levels: SPY (524.2-520.1), QQQ (447.6-442.3), IWM (210.3-206.4), and
SPX(5264.6-5222.9).
Stocks to watch FCX, NEM, APA, GE, HUM, TSLA, PVH, DAL, NVDA, AAPL
Spec Names GFI, MAG
Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices VIX, SLV, GDX, FXI, GLD, COPX, IBIT, ARKK, ARKG, ARKF, XBI, IWM,
XLV, IGV, TLT, SMH, DIA, IPO, XLK
S&P500 EL, FCX, APA, NEM, GE, HUM, CVS,
UNH, TPR, VFC, NCLH, TSLA, CCL, DAL, AAL, AMD, UAL
Movers CHX, ROIV, BILI, ARRY, LI, GFI, EL, ZTO, TTE, BP, MAG, PBR, SHEL,
FCX, VERV, PVH, GE, HUM, MSTR, EH, CVS, MARA, UNH, HOOD, COIN, RIOT,
CLSK, TPR, AFRM, NXT, VFC, ASML, CVNA, RIVN, VKTX, AI, PLTR, BE
Trade Idea: SPY
S&P500 is moving lower with long yields higher. SPY is below 520 and below the daily expected daily move with potential targets 516 bottom of weekly expected move and 515 gamma level. Jolts report at 10:00 ET and Fed speakers throughout the day may influence the market. Usually on these days there can be a bounce near the end of the day as 0DTE puts monetize profit but no guarantee.