Swing Trade Idea – April 24, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.49% Currencies: USA$ -.17% Vix: -0.6%
·
News: USA: Durable goods 8:30 ET CDN: Retail sales 8:30
ET EUR : German ifo biz climate improving
Stocks: TSLA +12%, TXN+6.7%, T+3.7%, BSX+3.9%, BIIB+3%, VRT+15%,
BA+3%, EPS ENPH-8%, GD -.9%
Overview: USA SPY 506.8 with support at 505 and 500, and resistance at
508 and 510; SPY expected move +/- 2.6. QQQ 427.9 with resistance at 429 and
430, and support at 425, 421, and 420; QQQ expected move +/-4. USA indices are
mixed premarket with large caps positive lead by QQQ and small caps negative.
Macro is negative with higher yields, higher US$ but lower commodities.
There have been 2 days of short covering and premarket TSLA higher after poor
earnings and TXN higher on a forecast cut and declining revenue indicates that
short covering is continuing. TXN higher is lifting semis with NVDA and AMD
leading. MAG7 ex-AAPL are higher led by META that is reporting after the close.
BSX report providing more juice for medical equipment companies following DHR
report Tuesday. Caveat is the higher yields, US$ is usually negative and is
weighing on some commodities but not on equities which are driven by flow and
not fundamentals since Monday. Massive long Vix positions which have been
unwinding have helped to lift equity and can continue. Risks into Friday are
major MAG7 earnings along with GDP and PCE which will move yields. SPX is still
negative gamma hence large moves are possible. Today’s daily expected move
levels: SPY (508-505.7), QQQ (429-421), IWM (200-196.8), and
SPX(5097-5044).
Stocks to watch TSLA, TXN, T, NVDA, AAPL, ENPH, GLD
Spec Names VRT
Pre-800ET
Earnings V, TSLA, TXN, CB, CBI, BKR, ENPH, STX, RRC,
TMO, RHHBY, T, BA, BSX, GD, CME, ODFL, HUM, VRT
Indices SMH, KWEB, ARKK, FXI, XLY, QQQ, XLK, COPX, SLV, GDX,
TLT, GLD, XLP, IWM
S&P500 TSLA, TXN, BIIB, ON, HAS, SMCI, ADI, BSX, T,
MCHP, ETN, BA, HUM, META, WDC, V, AMD, ABNB, ENPH, GD, BKR, CB
Movers VRT, BILI, STM, ARM, WOLF, EH, DELL, MNSO, SE, JD, VST, RIO, TTD,
SMTC, AI, HCP, VALE, MRVL, BABA, FUTU, SNAP, NVS, BIDU, COIN, NU, GFI, UBS, AU,
EDU, SEDG, LYFT, NVO, ING, PINS
Trade Idea: KWEB
KWEB is an ETF holding Chinese internet stocks traded in Hong Kong with USA ADRs. Starting to breakout on the weekly chart and in an uptrend which started in January. KWEB Gapped above the 200 SMA yesterday. Ideally look for a pullback retest ~27 for a long. PDD idea from last few days is performing well and broke the 50 SMA but getting a little stretched. Note China is volatile hence risky.