Swing Trade Idea – April 4, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup- Pre-730ET
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.19% Currencies: USA$ -.08% Vix: -1.3%
·
News: USA: UE claims 830ET; Job cuts 0.7% y/y. FOMC
Barkin Mester 12ET EUR:10Y bond yields rising
Stocks: LEVI +11%, CAG +3% EPS PLTR +4% deal with
ORCL SQ -3% downgrade Bitcoin names: MARA 2.4%, RIOT, CLSK, COIN+2.75%, Bitcoin
higher
·
Overview: USA SPY 521.6 support 520 515 and resistance 523
525 SPY expected move +/- 4. QQQ 444.7 with resistance 445 446.6 and
support 437.6 35 ; expected move +/-4.5. USA indices are positive
with large cap tech leading to the upside and MAG7 ex-GOOGL higher. ARKK and
bitcoin strong is indicative of risk-on with caveat that long yields rising is
not normally positive for equities. UE claims were slightly higher than
expected which may provide short term bump but option market has been selling
calls so take caution on pops. Moves outside daily expected moves can lead to
much larger moves. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (523.4-515.5),
QQQ (446.6-437.6), IWM (209-202.6), SPX(5230-5192).
Stocks to watch: NVDA, CAG, LEVI, NVDA, META, AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, SQ,
SLV, Spec Names PLTR
Pre-800ET
Earnings:
Indices: COPX, BITO, SMH, KWEB, FXI, ARKK, XLK, QQQ, XLF, VIX, GLD,
SLV, TLT, GDX
S&P500: CAG, WYNN, F, META, NVDA, FCX, PARA,
Movers: LEVI, PLTR, CAG, CLSK, COIN, MARA, RIOT, F, META, VRT, NVDA, SQ, AXNX,
UPST
Trade Idea: NVDA
NVDA potential long idea > 900 if large cap tech follows through from premarket. Daily expected move +/- 31 to target to upside 921 with squeeze potential above 920. Large put positions at 900 which can act as support or larger move lower down if breached.