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  • Swing Trade Idea – May 1, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Negative global set-up

    ·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.05% Currencies: USA$ +.24% Vix: -.45%

    ·         NewsUSA: ADP jobs 8:15 ET; Treasury QRA 8:30 ET; ISM MFG, JOLTS 10:00 ET; FOMC 14:00 ET; CDN: Maklem speaking
    Stocks:
    AMZN+1.7%, PFE+1.2%, KKR+1.5%, PINS+15%, AMD-6%, SYK-0.5%, SBUX-12.7%, MDLZ-1.4%, CVS-11.6%, SMCI -9.7%, SWKS-14%, MA-2.7%, KHC-4%, EPS
    Overview: USA SPY 500.5 with support at 500 and 497.5, and resistance at 502 and 505; SPY expected move +/- 4.5. QQQ 423 with resistance at 425 and 430, and support at 420 and 418.6; QQQ expected move +/-6. USA indices are weaker with QQQ leading to the downside with weakness in semis post AMD earnings. Names: SBUX big earnings miss, Vente lattes too expensive, SMCI at bottom of expected move may affect NVDA and AI names; CVS > 2 SD drop; SWKS, AAPL supplier big drop; PINS big move on beat – Options room winner; Cannabis big move on DEA news, watch; Big events today with Treasury issuance plan, FOMC with market highly sensitive to liquidity. IV is elevated so potential for a strong bounce IF Powell and Yellen actions are deemed positive. SPX is put dominated with greater negativity < 5070 and 5040 a large position which can act as support or acceleration below. SPX 5000 should be support but below there are only puts which can lead to larger moves. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (506.5 497.5), QQQ (430.6-418.6), IWM (199.1-192.7), and SPX (5080-4991). 

    Stocks to watch AMZN, JNJ, AMD, NVDA, SBUX, SWKS, MA

    Spec Names PINS, ROOT, SMCI 

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings AMZN, AMD, SYK, SBUX, SMCI, MA, PFE, ADP, CVS, KKR, MAR, EL, KHC
    Indices
    VIX, MSFT, GDX, SLV, GLD, FXI, TLT, IBIT, SMH, ARKK, XLP, QQQ, DBC
    S&P500 AMZN, JNJ, PFE, MMM, STX, SWKS, SBUX, CVS, SMCI, AMD, YUM, KHC, EL, NCLH, MA, JCI, QRVO
    Movers TGTX, ROOT, PINS, TMDS, NARI, LMND, CCJ, SNN, BEP, GSK, WING, DDOG, STLA, GOLD, LEG, COCO, CGC, SQ, CLSK, EH, MARA

     

    Trade Idea: MSOS

    MSOS popped Tuesday on news that DEA had confirmed FDA to reclassify Cannabis. Important first stop but there are still more steps before USA cannabis companies can be listed. Short term will be volatile.  Can use 11 as a momentum long level or look for pullbacks > 10. USA companies are the big beneficiaries and I will publish a vetted list of the top companies to option room members. 

     

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