Swing Trade Idea – May 1, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.05% Currencies: USA$ +.24% Vix: -.45%
·
News: USA: ADP jobs 8:15 ET; Treasury QRA 8:30 ET; ISM
MFG, JOLTS 10:00 ET; FOMC 14:00 ET; CDN: Maklem speaking
Stocks: AMZN+1.7%, PFE+1.2%, KKR+1.5%, PINS+15%, AMD-6%,
SYK-0.5%, SBUX-12.7%, MDLZ-1.4%, CVS-11.6%, SMCI -9.7%, SWKS-14%, MA-2.7%,
KHC-4%, EPS
Overview: USA SPY 500.5 with support at 500 and 497.5, and resistance at
502 and 505; SPY expected move +/- 4.5. QQQ 423 with resistance at 425 and 430,
and support at 420 and 418.6; QQQ expected move +/-6. USA indices are weaker
with QQQ leading to the downside with weakness in semis post AMD earnings.
Names: SBUX big earnings miss, Vente lattes too expensive, SMCI at bottom of
expected move may affect NVDA and AI names; CVS > 2 SD drop; SWKS, AAPL
supplier big drop; PINS big move on beat – Options room winner; Cannabis big
move on DEA news, watch; Big events today with Treasury issuance plan, FOMC
with market highly sensitive to liquidity. IV is elevated so potential for a
strong bounce IF Powell and Yellen actions are deemed positive. SPX is put
dominated with greater negativity < 5070 and 5040 a large position which can
act as support or acceleration below. SPX 5000 should be support but below
there are only puts which can lead to larger moves. Today’s daily expected move
levels: SPY (506.5 497.5), QQQ (430.6-418.6), IWM (199.1-192.7), and SPX
(5080-4991).
Stocks to watch AMZN, JNJ, AMD, NVDA, SBUX, SWKS, MA
Spec Names PINS, ROOT, SMCI
Pre-800ET
Earnings AMZN, AMD, SYK, SBUX, SMCI, MA, PFE, ADP, CVS,
KKR, MAR, EL, KHC
Indices VIX, MSFT, GDX, SLV, GLD, FXI, TLT, IBIT, SMH, ARKK, XLP, QQQ, DBC
S&P500 AMZN, JNJ, PFE, MMM, STX, SWKS, SBUX,
CVS, SMCI, AMD, YUM, KHC, EL, NCLH, MA, JCI, QRVO
Movers TGTX, ROOT, PINS, TMDS, NARI, LMND, CCJ, SNN, BEP, GSK, WING, DDOG,
STLA, GOLD, LEG, COCO, CGC, SQ, CLSK, EH, MARA
Trade Idea: MSOS
MSOS popped Tuesday on news that DEA had confirmed FDA to reclassify Cannabis. Important first stop but there are still more steps before USA cannabis companies can be listed. Short term will be volatile. Can use 11 as a momentum long level or look for pullbacks > 10. USA companies are the big beneficiaries and I will publish a vetted list of the top companies to option room members.