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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – slight negative global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.27%  Currencies:  USA$  +.11% Vix: -.29%

·         News:  USA: FOMC meeting minutes 14ET JPN: Core machinery orders exceeded expectations UK: CPI above expectations
Stocks: PDD+8.5%, ADI+6.2%, TJX+1.4%, TGT-7%, LOW-.16%,  EPS LULU-3.8%, Chief product officer leaving SHOP+3%, GS upgrade TSLA-1.8%, European registrations lower, Panasonic reporting that a major customer is cutting battery orders

·         Overview: USA SPY 530.5  support 530 528.7  and resistance 531.7 535; SPY expected move +/- 2.7; QQQ 455.7  with resistance 456.3 460  and support 452.8 450  expected move +/- 5.3.  USA indices are mixed with QQQ flat and small caps lower. Global equities are weaker with US$ and longer yields higher. Big events today are the FOMC meeting at 14ET and more importantly the NVDA earnings release after the close. NVDA is important as AI narrative is dependent on NVDA forecast. Implied volatility is elevated for today as hedges are added into the events. Usual pattern is IV will drop post event and will move indices higher. Caveat is that a NVDA miss will catch the market leaning the wrong direction and lead to a larger downside move. MAG7 leaders premarket are AMZN and NVDA.  Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (534-528.7),  QQQ (461-450.6), IWM (210.3-206.4), SPX(5348-5294). 

Stocks to watch ADI, AMD, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, TGT, TLT, Spec Names SHOP

Pre-800ET
Earnings
Indices IBIT, ETHE, US$, USO, EFA, GLD, TLT, UNG, EWC, IWM, MSOS, FXI, XLE
S&P500  ADI, MCHP, ON, TJX, SMCI, TGT, LULU, FCX, TSLA
Movers DQ, PDD, CSIQ, JKS, SHOP, STM, URBN, FLNC, TSM, VSAT, MOD, GOGL, HBM, HIMS, VIPS, MT, DYN, NVO, GME, FRO, ZS, AA, HMY, BABA, VIPS, TTE, BIDU, GOLD, AZN

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA reports earnings after the close. Expected move is +/-82 into Fri expiration so range of 1030-865. NVDA has moved higher more than the expected 2 out of last 4 times. Concerns into this report would be customers delaying purchase of current chips waiting for the Blackwell. NVDA has apparently threatened customers who cancel orders to wait with being added to the bottom of list. NVDA is key to the AI narrative so aside from index moves, TSM, SMCI, AMD, MU, DELL will all trade in sympathy as will semis in general. NVDA is currently bid premarket with 950 a high call open interest level and forms a bull bear line. All time high of 974 is a potential target if they run it into the report.