Swing Trade Idea – June 10, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.43% Currencies: USA$ +.32% Vix: +2.2%
·
News: EUR: European stocks lower as right leaning parties
gained strength. France called snap elections in reaction Japan: GDP q/q
-0.5 as expected
Stocks: KKR+7.7%, CRWD+5.8%, GDDY+2%, added to S&P500 PLTR -3%,
CELH-3%, not added AMD-2.7%, downgrade AVGO+1% pre-earnings ramp, DKNG+1.9% upgrade, LUV+7.8%, Activist
involved AAPL+.4%, WWD starts Monday NVDA -.26% post split DO being
acquired by Noble
Overview: USA SPY 533.9 support 532 530 and resistance 535 546.4,
SPY expected move +/- 2.4., QQQ 462.9 with resistance 465 466 and support
460 expected move +/- 3.1, USA large caps indices are flat but
small caps are lower with macro factors negative as yields are higher and US%
is higher. US$ is higher with Euro lower after European elections. Commodities
which were slammed Friday with the US$ higher are bouncing in spite of the US$
moving higher. No USA data today and some foreign exchanges closed so
0DTE will dominate trading. AAPL in play with WWD on and market looking forward
to AI color, could go either way. S&P index adds and deletes will be
active. S&P is ignoring the rise in US$ and yields which suggests flows are
dominating. IWM is weaker as is having the normal reaction. Would be on the
look out for either S&P pulling back or IWM moving higher. Technically IWM
is oversold and S&P is overbought. NVDA on watch today for whether the
split is a sell the news or yet another reason to buy. AVGO, ADBE, ORCL,
earnings this week can lead to Pavlovian pre-earnings buying. Today’s daily
expected move levels: SPY (536.4-531.6), QQQ (466-460), IWM (202.7-200),
SPX(5371-5323).
Stocks to watch KKR, CRWD, AAPL, LUV, CELH, PLTR, NVDA, Spec Names OPRA, CVNA, GME
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, USO, GLD, FXI, MSOS, IBIT, $US, XLE, TLT, IWM,
XBI, EFA, XLF, FEZ
S&P500 LUV, WMT, ENPH, AVGO, AMD, HBAN,
NVDA
Movers OPRA, NICE, LUV, KKR, DO, GME, CRWD, DNUT, GDDY, DKNG, CVNA, PAAS,
EMT, ENPH, PBR, CLSK, BILI, CELH, PLTR, AMD, NVAX, ADBE, HBAN, UPST
Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL WWD starts Monday and runs for 4 days. AAPL expected move for the week is +/6.5 with premarket high 197.8. Above 197.5 look for 200, which is the high open interest strike for the week. Above 200 potential move to 202.5, 205. Market is looking for a strong AI offering and stock can move higher on a positive reaction and alternatively it could be a sell the news. If long AAPL into the event be aware that it can go either way and AAPL has been running higher in anticipation of a strong AI story in spite of weak growth.