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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Negative  global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.7% Currencies: USA$ +.43% Vix: +5%

·         News: USA: UofM Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET China: New loans major miss; M2 lower y-y Canada: MFG sales 8:30 ET

·         Stocks: ADBE+14%, RH-12% EPS ARM being added to QQQ on next rebalance
Overview: USA SPY 540.7 with support at 540 and 538.7, and resistance at 545; SPY expected move +/- 2.4. QQQ 476.2 with resistance at 480 and support at 477 and 475; QQQ expected move +/- 3. Global equity positioning positioning is risk-off with Europe weaker due to French political uncertainty and Chinese data continuing to weaken. US$ higher and long yields lower is a classic risk-off set-up. USA markets are also classic risk-off with IWM underperforming and QQQ leading although slightly negative.  Market breadth continues to narrow as financials, industrial move lower and NVDA and other MAG7 are used to support the S&P500.  Gold and silver are bid which IMO is a risk-off signal as would normally pullback with the higher US$. ADBE is the big mover today- earnings and revenue beat but revenue growth +11% y/y so looks like shorts are being squeezed therefore potential for further movement today. MAG7 led by TSLA and NVDA and remain the important stocks as are the sole reason for SPY moving higher is MAG7. Today is Opex and stocks with large call positions out of the money and can pullback if price fails to advance.  S&P buyback window will be closing soon and will be interesting if there is anyone who will step up. Some of the MAG7 have large buybacks which in some part are the reason for the rise of the names and market in general. SPY 540 is an important bull/bear level. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (545-540), QQQ (479.7-476.7), IWM (203.3-200.5), and SPX (5457-5409). 

Stocks to watch ADBE, TLT, IBIT, NVDA, TSLA, KWEB, SMCI, BA

Spec Names GFI, HUT

Pre-800ET
Indices GLD, USO, TLT, IGV, UUP, FEZ, IWM, EFA, XLF, XLI, XBI, ARKK, FXI, XLB, SPY, EWC
S&P500 ADBE, TSLA, SMCI, MO, HBAN, FSLR, VST, CCL, BA, ENPH, C, AMAT
Movers GFI, AU, GME, S, MSTR, PR, RCM, HUT, SHOP, GOLD, RH, NVAX, BCS, GOGL, DB, BILI, STLA, STM, RNA, PINS, ASML, FRO, TWLO, TTE, LI

Trade Idea: IWM

IWM is down premarket and below the bottom of the daily expected move as market is set-up risk-off.  Straddle approach with long > 200 on bounce with target 201.8 and fade below 198.4 premarket low should it continue to sell off. UofM consumer confidence could be a catalyst for a move. 200 has been a bounce level Mon and Tues. Fail to hold target is 195.