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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.1% Currencies: USA$ +.19 Vix: -.13%

·         News:  USA: Retail sales 8:30 ET; Industrial Production 9:15 ET EUR: German EW 47.5 vs 49; CPI 2.6% unchanged 

·         Stocks: LEN -2.2% EPS CHGG +18% restructuring; QCOM +3.7% may be sole supplier to Samsung Galaxy S25 due to Samsung 3nm yields
Overview: USA SPY 547.2 with support at 545 and 543, and resistance at 550; SPY expected move +/- 2.6.  QQQ 486 with resistance at 488.9 and 490, and support at 481.4 and 480; QQQ expected move +/- 3.7. USA indices are flattish ahead of retail sales and industrial production prints premarket. Macro factors are slightly negative with US$ and long yields higher. Premarket positioning is the usual AI and MAG7 bid with small caps lagging.  Monday’s move has moved SPY and QQQ close to the top of weekly expected moves and AAPL, MSFT to the top. QCOM is above the top of the weekly expected move but is well bid on Samsung story.  Semiconductors and AI in general continue to be squeezed and may continue. Bitcoin is notably divergent with COIN and miners pulling back which is notable that correlation with QQQ is broken. OPEX Fri usually results in the options market supporting into Wednesday with a window of weakness opening on Thursday and extending into the following week. Names with large out of the money call positions expiring Fri are at risk unless the hedge funds continue to roll. NVDA in particular could be at risk. Retail sales appear weaker than expected, which may weigh on retailers but paradoxically since bad news is good (Fed will cut) can support the index, watch WMT COST. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (549.7-544.5), QQQ (488.8-481.4), IWM (202.3-198.5), and SPX (5499-5447). 

Stocks to watch QCOM, MU, NVDA, AVGO, AMZN, NEE, LEN

Spec Names SMCI, CLSK 

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, XLK, UUP, QQQ, IBIT, XLU, FXI, GLD, IWM, TLT, ARKK, EFA, USO
S&P500 QCOM, MU, AVGO, SMCI, CCL, NEE, PM, LEN, FSLR, VST, FCX, ADBE
Movers ITCI, PDCO, QCOM, MU, DELL, AVGO, ASTS, SMCI, LMND, KR, TSM, FRO, GFI, NCLH, CCL, NEE, CLSK, TAK, PM, GME, NVAX, HUT, RIOT, LEN, IREN, MARA, COIN, FSLR

Trade Idea: QCOM

QCOM has moved parabolically with money chasing semis and AI stocks. Latest rumor is that QCOM can gain volume in Samsung Galaxy due to Samsung yield issues. Technically very extended, dominant thesis is to pullback towards 220 with trigger < 225. The alternate thesis is pullback  and bounce with target 230. 50% Fib 222 61.8 Fib 220 potential bounce levels.