.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Negative global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.29% Currencies: USA$ +.17% Vix: +1.2%

·         News: USA: MFG, Services PMI 9:45 ET; Existing home sales 10:00 ET EUR: MFG and Services PMI with MFG still contracting UK: Retail sales better than expected JP: MFG PMI lower; CPI 2.5% y/y vs 2.6%

·         Stocks: KMX+1.3%, FDS+2.4%, EPS SRPT+37% FDA approval for rare disease drug AI: Pullback in NVDA -1.6%, QCOM -1.1%, MU-3.6% potential risk with large Opex today
Overview: USA SPY 544.4 with support at 542 and 540, and resistance at 545 and 548; SPY expected move +/- 2.6. QQQ 480.9 with resistance at 485, and support at 480, 478, and 475; QQQ expected move +/- 3.4. Global equities are weaker premarket with USA large caps underperforming small caps. Macro setup is mixed with US$ stronger likely due to weaker economic data from Europe and Japan; however long yields are falling which is a positive. Today is the largest Opex in history which will impact the high-flying large caps versus the small caps. Potential risk for stocks with large speculative call positions expiring, which can lead to market maker selling. Premarket weakness in AI basket semis which is potential Opex related; bitcoin related names and it’s notable that bitcoin was been weak and historically has been a leading indicator for QQQ; and metals which are reflecting China weakness. US PMI data 9:45 ET will impact the US$ with weaker date likely leading to a lower US$ and potentially lifting the equities. The Opex today leads to a reduction in the positive gamma which has been pinning indices and volatility and can lead to an increase in vol and larger moves next week (up or down). Buyback windows closing for major stocks will reduce the mechanical bid for stocks which removes some support so take care in the coming week. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (548.1-542.3), QQQ (485-478), IWM (201.8-198), and SPX (5502-5444). 

Stocks to watch GILD, SRPT, TLT, AAPL, NVDA, MU, COIN

Spec Names GFI, IREN, CLSK 

Pre-800ET
Indices MSOS, XBI, GLD, TLT, UUP, IBIT, FXI, EFA, UNG, SPY, EWC
S&P500 CTLT, GILD, KMX, NKE, MU, WRK, NVDA, QCOM
Movers SRPT, GFI, AU, BILI, AA, CLSK, IREN, PLTR, ONON, MSTR, JD, BCS, ARM, COIN, UBS, HUT, GME, DELL

Trade Idea: NKE

NKE reports earnings next week and is a potential run into earnings idea. The expected move into next Friday is +/-7.5. Stock is a member of the DJIA which has lagged the QQQ but MAY benefit from a rotation out of tech.  Volume and 50 SMA support at 94 and recent high 98. Call OI at 97 and 100, 105 and Put at 95, 92. These can be used as upside targets and downside support/stops.