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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight positive global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.21% Currencies: USA$ -.08% Vix: -.06%

·         News: USA: PCE 8:30 ET; Consumer sentiment 10:00 ET CDN: GDP 8:30 ET
Stocks: NKE -15% EPS DJT+8% Debate reaction HUT+2% CLSK+2% MARA+1.2% bitcoin miners bid
Overview: USA SPY 548 with support at 547.5, 545, and 543.5, and resistance at 549.3 and 550; SPY expected move +/- 2.9. QQQ 484.2 with resistance at 485 and support at 480 and 478; QQQ expected move +/- 3.6. USA econ data: USA PCE was 1% m/m inline, personal income .5% m/m above expectations and personal spending .2% below expectations but higher. Market reaction was TLT higher, US$ lower and equities which were positioned risk-on pulled back slightly. Sectors still look risk-on with the riskiest assets leading i.e IWM ARKK TSLA and the quality lagging i.e. GOOGL MSFT. It’s the end of the quarter and Russell rebalance. Usually the last day of month is positive with window dressing supporting leaders. Rebalance can lead to outperformance by laggards.  NKE earnings are weighing on FL ONON and potentially other retail. TSLA and AAPL are leading the MAG7 with GOOGL and META lagging. TSLA usually is a signal for short covering or risk-on. US$ pullback is boosting the beaten down commodities like silver. IMO this is a reaction to PCE not worse than expected and not a read that the FED needs to cut so caution that the pullback premarket may be transitory as may the bounce in risk-on assets. Consumer sentiment data at 10:00 ET will be market moving and set the table for the rest of day. Usually today and next week is positive but risk of rotation from MAG7 into laggards may result in the market cap weighted S&P underperforming.  SPX 5400 is the key hold level for bulls and 5500 is resistance or level to launch higher.  Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (549.3-543.5), QQQ (485.2-478), IWM (203.8-200.4), and SPX (5511-5453.9). 

Stocks to watch TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, SLV, NKE, GOOGL

Spec Names DJT, HUT 

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, FXI, XLK, QQQ, XLE, XME, ARKK, IYT, MSOS, TLT
S&P500 TSLA, CRM, SMCI, MRNA, HAL, NKE, IP, WBA
Movers DJT, GEO, CXW, HIMS, BILI, HUT, CLSK, MARA, IREN, TSM, UPST, AFRM, ARM, RCKT, FL, ONON, VFC, BUD, LI

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA is the poster child for risk on with potential to continue higher and short squeeze > 200 or alternatively fade < 197.5.  Traded higher premarket ahead of USA inflation data which was inline and hence no particular reason for stocks to rise apart from end of quarter flows. Large call positions at 200 can act as accelerant if above or weigh on the stock into end of day if it cannot move up. Expected move today +/-3.3