Swing Trade Idea – July 11, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.13% Currencies: USA$ -.21% Vix: +.13%
·
News: USA: CPI, UE report 830ET Japan:
Machine orders -3.2% m/m UK: GDP 0.4% m/m
Stocks: PFE +2.7%, GLP1 drug; WDFC +10%, EPS DAL -8% EPS
forecast weaker, all airlines lower along with cruisers; PEP -1.7%
CAG -2.4%, EPS Consumers slowing; COST +1.86% increasing
annual fee but increasing wages; QS +35% deal with
VW for solid state batteries ; SOUN+6.5% voice assistant with Chatgpt
in some European autos;
Overview: USA SPY 562.7 support 561 560 558 and resistance 565, SPY
expected move +/- 3.4. QQQ 504.4 with resistance 505 507.6 and
support 500 498.4, expected move +/- 4.6. Core CPI 0.1% vs 0.2%,
full CPI -0.1% vs 0.1%, UE claims 222k vs 235k. Primary drivers of CPI were
energy, used cars and airline fees. Initial market reaction was higher as
expected as IV elevated into the print and will drop with the print. IMO the
data indicates that inflation is still a concern and the UE claims do not
indicate an employment problem. With indices extended, some caution for a
potential sell, the news is possible with SPY 560 a level to watch. PEP, CAG,
DAL earnings indicate that consumers are slowing. Largest moves as
expected are TLT IWM GLD as yields and US$ have fallen. Some sectors that have
been gaining strength are biotech and foreign markets e.g. China that benefit
from a lower US$. MAG7 leaders NVDA, TSLA with some softness in other names.
Healthcare was strong yesterday and another sector to watch.
Stocks to watch IBIT, IWM, NVDA, WDFC, BIDU, PFE, DAL Spec Names SOUN,
QS, ENVX, IREN
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, FXI, MSOS, ETHE, GLD, XLP, UNG, USO, IYT, US$, SPY
S&P500 PFE, COST, DAL, UAL,
AAL, ON, CAG, LUV, MCHP, PEP, C, CCL, NCLH
Movers SPRY, ASX, MSTR, LI, JD, TCOM, AA, BIDU, MARA, BILI, INFY,
GME, IREN, NVS, BTDR, VKTX, ZIM, ALK, GOGL, FRO, TRMD, SMR, XP
Trade Idea: XBI
XBI has broken out on the daily and with healthcare a laggard relative to MAG7, it has potential to continue to get some loving. It is extended so as usual I prefer a pullback but momentum traders can use the breakout. XBI holds a number of smaller names so has greater movement than IBB. ARKG is an alternative.