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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 11, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.13%  Currencies:  USA$  -.21%  Vix: +.13%

    ·         NewsUSA: CPI, UE report 830ET  Japan: Machine orders -3.2% m/m UK: GDP 0.4% m/m
    Stocks:
     PFE +2.7%, GLP1 drug; WDFC +10%, EPS DAL -8% EPS forecast weaker, all airlines lower along with cruisers; PEP -1.7% CAG -2.4%, EPS Consumers slowing; COST +1.86% increasing annual fee but increasing wages; QS +35% deal with VW for solid state batteries ; SOUN+6.5%  voice assistant with Chatgpt in some European autos;
    Overview: USA SPY 562.7 support 561 560 558 and resistance 565, SPY expected move +/- 3.4. QQQ 504.4  with resistance 505 507.6  and support 500 498.4,  expected move +/- 4.6.  Core CPI 0.1% vs 0.2%, full CPI -0.1% vs 0.1%, UE claims 222k vs 235k. Primary drivers of CPI were energy, used cars and airline fees. Initial market reaction was higher as expected as IV elevated into the print and will drop with the print. IMO the data indicates that inflation is still a concern and the UE claims do not indicate an employment problem. With indices extended, some caution for a potential sell, the news is possible with SPY 560 a level to watch. PEP, CAG, DAL earnings indicate that consumers are slowing.  Largest moves as expected are TLT IWM GLD as yields and US$ have fallen. Some sectors that have been gaining strength are biotech and foreign markets e.g. China that benefit from a lower US$. MAG7 leaders NVDA, TSLA with some softness in other names. Healthcare was strong yesterday and another sector to watch.


    Stocks to watch
     IBIT, IWM, NVDA, WDFC, BIDU, PFE, DAL  Spec Names   SOUN, QS, ENVX, IREN

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    IBIT, FXI, MSOS, ETHE, GLD, XLP, UNG, USO, IYT, US$, SPY
    S&P500  PFE, COST, DAL, UAL, AAL, ON, CAG, LUV, MCHP, PEP, C, CCL, NCLH
    Movers SPRY, ASX, MSTR, LI, JD, TCOM, AA, BIDU,  MARA, BILI, INFY, GME, IREN, NVS, BTDR, VKTX, ZIM, ALK, GOGL, FRO, TRMD, SMR, XP




    Trade Idea: XBI

    XBI has broken out on the daily and with healthcare a laggard relative to MAG7, it has potential to continue to get some loving. It is extended so as usual I prefer a pullback but momentum traders can use the breakout. XBI holds a number of smaller names so has greater movement than IBB. ARKG is an alternative.

     

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