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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.05%  Currencies:  USA$  -.5%  Vix: +2%

·         News:  USA: FOMC Waller 935ET; Ind Production 915ET; BeigeBook 14ET EUR: CPI inline UK: CPI above expectations but PPI lower
Stocks:  USB+1.1%, ASML-7.5%, JNJ-0.1%, SYF-1.4%,  ELV-.6%, JBHT-2%, ALLY-1%,  EPS GTLB+14%, Potentially being acquired by DDOG; VFC selling a biz unit

·         Overview: USA SPY 559.8  support 558 555 and resistance  560 562.1 565  SPY expected move +/- 2.75. QQQ 489.3  with resistance 490 495 500 and support 487 485  expected move +/- 4.5.  Global indices have been declining overnight with USA large caps below the daily expected move which can lead to a trend day lower.  SPX 5600 (SPY557) could lead to a move down to 5500-5520. Catalysts: (1) Vix expiration today and with Opex Fri the window of less support from options market extends from today into next week. Market has been pinned which has led to large swings in individual names but not the index. Index can start to move which can increase correlation (2) ASML forecast weaker than expected which is weighing on semis. ASML receives 41% of revenue from China (3) USA govt is talking for nth time about restricting foreign company sales to China (i.e ASML and Tokyo electric (4) Trump talking less supportive of Taiwan versus USA mfgs. (5) Trump not looking to ban TikTok which is negative for META and SNAP.  Net of this is a large down draft in semis, and collateral damage to the AI names (e.g. SMCI). Note TSMC is reporting this week and potentially save the semis with a strong forecast or add fuel to the fire. Question is whether the dispersion trade will continue, which will require large buys in financials, industrials but premarket I am just seeing some rotation into staples names.  We have seen these setups in the past, where indices are down and the short covering leads to a recovery but there is a potential for a larger continuation move given the lack of hedges and Vix expiration.
Expected moves SPY(567.6-562.1), QQQ (500.8-491.8), IWM(227.6-221.6), SPX (5694.7-5639.7)


Stocks to watch  INTC, PEP, FXY, NVDA, ASML, MU, AMD  Spec Names   GTLB 

Pre-800ET
Indices USO, UNG, GLD, SMH, XLK, QQQ, XBI, ARKK, SLV, MSOS, IGV, SPY
S&P500  NTRS, INTC, USB, VLO, PEP, EXC, MCD, TMUS, GIS, AMAT, LRCX, MU, QCOM, NVDA, KLAC, SMCI, AVGO
Movers GTLB, BE, VFC, FDMT, ZETA, GTES, TAK, INTC, USB, GFI,  FIVE, ASML, VKX, AMKR, TSM, AMAT, ARM, QCOM, JMIA, SMR, MU, AMD, NVDA, CLS, LLY

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA has been pulling back on an unwind of the dispersion trade with hedge funds long MAG7 and short smallcaps, and S&P493. Today the rhetoric from Trump and USA govt on limiting China access to high end semis plus ASML weak forecast is adding further pressure. NVDA has some put support at 120 but below 120 there is a large position at 115. Straddle approach around 120 level where can look for tradable bounce or a breakdown. Note that QQQ, SMH will likely move in the direction of NVDA.