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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 23, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.37%  Currencies:  USA$ +.11% Vix: +.04%

    ·         NewsUSA: Existing home sales; Richmond mfg index 10ET
    Stocks:
      KO+1.5%, SAP+6%, DHR+6.8%, GE+3.7%, PM+3%, SHW+5%, SPOT+13%, GM+4.5%, UPS-7.4%, KMB-.8%, PII-9.8%, NXPI-7.3%, CMCSA-2.6% EPS 
    Overview: USA SPY 554.9 support 552.7 551.7 550 and resistance 557 560 SPY expected move +/- 3.0. QQQ 481.9 with resistance 485 486.6 490 and support 480 478 expected move +/- 4.3. USA and European stocks traded higher on European open after selling down in Asian session.  Macro is setup risk-off with TLT, US$, Yen and Gold higher which is a cautionary signal. USA equities are slightly lower with Russell weakest. Bitcoin is lower after a strong move Monday and may weigh on Russell. MAG7 are being led by TSLA which reports after the close along with GOOGL. Earnings names with potential for continuation (moved more than expected move) DHR, PM, SHW, SPOT, GM, UPS, NXPI. NXPI is a semi company that lowered forecast due to auto weakness and impacting TXN and ON. CDNS a semi design software company lowered guidance. NVDA is slightly lower on a story that the USA govt may place export controls on H20 chip which follows report Mon that NVDA is designing a China specific chip. Concern is that semis receive a large percentage of revenue from China. Many of the companies that reported beats are being sold premarket which indicates weakening appetite to buy although some like DHR beat but declining y/y. UPS looks like selling is continuing into the open. 

    Expected moves SPY (557.7-551.7) QQQ (486.6-478) IWM (222.8-217.8) SPX (5594.4-5534)


    Stocks to watch
    TSLA, LMT, DHR, GM, LMT, NVDA, AMD, UPS, Spec Names   

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    MSOS, XLB, ETHE, XLV, TLT, GLD, XLY, IBIT, FXI, UNG, SLV, USO, SMH, XLK
    S&P500  DHR, SHW, GM, GE, FCX, KO, F, FSLR, TSLA, QCOM, PM,  UPS, NXPI, CMCSA, ON, TXN, DIS
    Movers FSLR, F, TSLA, QCOM, PM, LMT, CRWD, PII, UPS, NXPI, AROC, HOG, WDS, STM, DJT, RAMP, CMCSA, LI, ON 



    Trade Idea: MSFT

    MSFT sold down on the outage last week and bounced Monday. Today it has received an upgrade by Piper with $485 target. Gap above on the chart with earnings in 6 days. Large call positions with 445 the trigger for a long and puts at 440 which is a trigger for a fade. MSFT may be a safety trade if market has mild weakness

     

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