Swing Trade Idea – July 23, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.37% Currencies: USA$ +.11% Vix: +.04%
·
News: USA: Existing home sales; Richmond mfg index 10ET
Stocks: KO+1.5%, SAP+6%, DHR+6.8%, GE+3.7%, PM+3%, SHW+5%,
SPOT+13%, GM+4.5%, UPS-7.4%, KMB-.8%, PII-9.8%, NXPI-7.3%, CMCSA-2.6% EPS
Overview: USA SPY 554.9 support 552.7 551.7 550 and resistance 557 560 SPY
expected move +/- 3.0. QQQ 481.9 with resistance 485 486.6 490 and support 480
478 expected move +/- 4.3. USA and European stocks traded higher on European
open after selling down in Asian session. Macro is setup risk-off with
TLT, US$, Yen and Gold higher which is a cautionary signal. USA equities are
slightly lower with Russell weakest. Bitcoin is lower after a strong move
Monday and may weigh on Russell. MAG7 are being led by TSLA which reports after
the close along with GOOGL. Earnings names with potential for continuation
(moved more than expected move) DHR, PM, SHW, SPOT, GM, UPS, NXPI. NXPI is a
semi company that lowered forecast due to auto weakness and impacting TXN and ON. CDNS a semi
design software company lowered guidance. NVDA is slightly lower on a story
that the USA govt may place export controls on H20 chip which follows report
Mon that NVDA is designing a China specific chip. Concern is that semis receive
a large percentage of revenue from China. Many of the companies that reported
beats are being sold premarket which indicates weakening appetite to buy
although some like DHR beat but declining y/y. UPS looks like selling is
continuing into the open.
Expected moves SPY (557.7-551.7) QQQ (486.6-478) IWM (222.8-217.8) SPX
(5594.4-5534)
Stocks to watch TSLA, LMT, DHR, GM, LMT, NVDA, AMD, UPS, Spec Names
Pre-800ET
Indices MSOS, XLB, ETHE, XLV, TLT, GLD, XLY, IBIT, FXI, UNG, SLV, USO, SMH,
XLK
S&P500 DHR, SHW, GM, GE, FCX, KO, F, FSLR,
TSLA, QCOM, PM, UPS, NXPI, CMCSA, ON, TXN, DIS
Movers FSLR, F, TSLA, QCOM, PM, LMT, CRWD, PII, UPS, NXPI, AROC, HOG,
WDS, STM, DJT, RAMP, CMCSA, LI, ON
Trade Idea: MSFT
MSFT sold down on the outage last week and bounced Monday. Today it has received an upgrade by Piper with $485 target. Gap above on the chart with earnings in 6 days. Large call positions with 445 the trigger for a long and puts at 440 which is a trigger for a fade. MSFT may be a safety trade if market has mild weakness