Swing Trade Idea – July 30, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond+.1% Currencies: USA$ +.09% YEN -.6% Vix: -.77%
·
News: USA: Jolts, CB consumer confidence EUR: Prelim GDP
q/q 0.3% vs 0.2%; Bitcoin: Potential that USA govt may sell $2B of Silk
Road assets.
Stocks: SYM-23%, LSCC-16.5%, DEO-7%, GLW-7%, PG -5%, AMKR -5.6%, MRK-2.3%, SFM+19%,
HWM+12%, FFIV+11%, VRNS+10.5%, PYPL+8.2%, PFE+1.5%, SWK+7% EPS CRWD-3.5% Delta
airlines potential legal action
Overview: Pre: PCE USA SPY 545.9 with support at 545, 542.8, 541, and 540,
and resistance at 548.5 and 550; SPY expected move +/- 3.8. QQQ 465.4 with
resistance at 468, 469.3, and 470, and support at 460 and 458.5; QQQ expected
move +/- 5.4. USA indices flattish ahead of 10:00 ET JOLTS report and MSFT
earnings AMC. US$ is higher mainly due to Yen lower ahead of tonight’s BOJ
decision which is significant as higher Yen is typically negative for equities.
Bitcoin is lower on story that USA govt may be a seller of $2B coins. Top
movers are earnings related. PYPL beat is lifting other payment companies like
AFRM and SQ. PG large holding in XLP is lower citing commodity costs and forex.
HWM and LDOS in the aerospace/defense group are up following LMT, RTX, group is
strong. LSCC and AMKR in semi group down. MAG7 are led by TSLA with NVDA lower
with a story that AAPL AI was retained with GOOGL Tensor processing units
rather than NVDA GPU. Look for a market move at 10ET with the Jolts
report with lower numbers good. Could be a quiet day with MSFT earnings after
the close
Expected moves SPY (548.5-541), QQQ (469.3-458.5), IWM (224.4-219), and SPX
(5501-5426)
Stocks to watch TSLA, AAPL, PYPL, FFIV, HWM, AFRM, PFE, CRWD, PG, MRK
Spec Names CLSK, COIN, CELH
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, MSOS, SMH, QQQ, GDX, XLF, IWM, XLK, KRE, UNG, IBIT,
FXI, USO, XLP, SLV
S&P500 FFIV, HWM, PYPL, SWK, SPGI, PFE, GLW, PG,
CRWD, DE, MRK
Movers SFM, HUT, FFIV, HWM, PYPL, SWK, AFRM, NVO, SQ, ASML, SPGI, BNTX,
GH, PFE, BBVA, BP, TSLA, SYM, LSCC, NVAX, DEO, GLW, AGCO, PG, CRWD, DE, IART, CNH, BHP, MRK,
PHG, RIO, STLA, LI, VALE
Trade Idea: MSFT
MSFT is
reporting earnings after the close with attention on the Ai related earnings
impact and capital expenditure plans which will impact NVDA.
Expected move +/-20 on the report. Option traders are positioned bearish
into print. 400 is important support.