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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Positive global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.1% Currencies: USA$ +.09% YEN -.6% Vix: -.77%

·         News: USA: ADP 8:30 ET, Chicago PMI 9:45 ET, FOMC 14:00 ET JP: Raised rates 150bps China: mfg PMI 49.4 as expected still slow; PBOC provided additional stimulus Geopolitical: Israel assassinated Hamas leader in Iran. Risk of increased military conflict in the Middle East has lifted the price of oil.
Stocks: MSFT-3.7%, MAR-4%, HUM-8.7%, PINS-10.5%, LMND-12%, AMD+8.5%, MFG+6%, DD+3.5%, FSLR+3.8%, TMUS+2.7%, BA+3%, SBUX+4% EPS NVDA+6% Semis lifted on AMD EPS that was not worse than expected. ASML+10% on news that USA allies exempted from China sanctions. Should help AVGO and other non USA domiciled
Overview: Pre: ADP SPY 547.9 with support at 545 and 540, and resistance at 547.9 and 550; SPY expected move +/- 5.8. QQQ 465.9 with resistance at 468 and 470, and support at 465 and 460; QQQ expected move +/- 7.3.  USA indices have been rising since 18:00 ET Tues. IMO catalyst was large put buying Tues in advance of MSFT AMD earnings and FOMC that started to unwind with earnings reports that were not great but not massively bad. MSFT sold down to the expected move on cloud revenue but shorts covered at the lows and it has made a large recovery. AMD missed on GAAP earnings but again high short interest is lifting the stock. SBUX missed but stock is higher, again shorts are covering. BOJ action has lifted Yen and hence US$ lower. China stimulus combined with a lower US$ is lifting metals and Israel assassination in Iran is lifting oil. ADP 122k vs 150k and employment costs Q2 0.9% vs 1% adds fuel to the narrative of a dovish Fed. The shorts/puts into today combined with indices already at the top of the daily expected move can lead to an outsized trend day higher but continuation through the week will be tempered with META AMZN AAPL earnings to come. Premarket its all about short covering in semis/AI and trades that can benefit from a lower US$ like gold with caveat that extended premarket.
Expected moves SPY (547.8-536.2), QQQ (464.8-450.2), IWM (227.4-217.8), and SPX (5494.4-5378.4)

Stocks to watch AMD, NVDA, VST, MTCH, JCI, MSFT

Spec Names MTCH

Pre-800ET
Indices SMH, USO, FXI, XLK, QQQ, GDX, SLV, ETHE, EFA, XLI, XLE, SPY, XLU, ARKK, UNG, UUP, XLP
S&P500 VST, CEG, MTCH, JCI, AMD, NVDA, AVGO, SMCI, MU, ANET, DD, WDC, CZR, QCOM, HUM, MAR, MO, MSFT, CVS, UNH, GEHC
Movers VST, CEG, MTCH, JCI, AMD, ASML, VRT, NVDA, AVGO, GFI, MU, SMCI, SMFG, ARM, TSM, OI, LMND, HUM, PINS, EDU, MAR, MO, MSFT, GSK, BBVA, CVS, SNAP, UNH

Trade Idea: VST

VST and CEG are up substantially on winning an auction to provide power to 13 state grid that will increases the revenue by 833%. VST was strong previously with the narrative that data centers and EVs will require alot more power. VST is obviously short term extended and may pullback but potentially large upside should it continue.