.

Date: July 5, 2024 

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·        Yields: 30Y Bond+.08%  Currencies:  USA$  -.35%  Vix: +.23%

·        News:  USA: non-farm payrolls, UE claims 830ET Canada: Employment report 830ET; PMI 10ET  EUR: German, French Industrial production negative m/m; European retail sales 0.1% vs 0.2% m/m
Stocks:  GLNG+8.5%  Deal with Argentina; M +7% buyout offer; TSLA +2.6% squeeze continues;  Goldminers AU GFI moving higher ahead of non-farm payrolls ahead; Bitcoin names down with bitcoin: COIN IREN MSTR CLSK MARA
Overview: USA SPY 552.2 support 550 548 and resistance 553 555 SPY expected move +/- 3.5. QQQ 493  with resistance 495 and support 490 486  expected move +/- 4.5. Today daily expected move levels: SPY (555-548)  QQQ (495.5-486.5), IWM (204-200) SPX(5572-5502). USA non-farm payrolls 206k above expectations but lower than prior. UE rate 4.1% vs 4% Average earnings 3.9% as expected.  Can be interpreted as weaker economy and immediate market reaction: dollar down, TLT higher (Fri idea), IWM higher.  Canadian UE rate 6.4% vs 6.2% and -1.4k jobs vs 25k which also indicates slower Canadian economy and is pushing loonie lower. MAG7 are being led by TSLA which has been squeezed higher since my reco last week. How far can it run, I dont know but there are large call positions at 255, 260, 265 which will act as resistance or acceleration levels. Lower US$ and yields leads to a Pavlovian response to buy metals, gold miners, small caps which may or may not last during the day. Large cap indices are technically extended and above weekly expected move hence statistically upside risk is higher than downside with caveat that volume will be light so far easier to manipulate.  Manipulation is done via the MAG7 with so far TSLA the leader.  Bitcoin continues to be very weak which is a caution signal since historically has led the Nasdaq. Bitcoin names are quite oversold and could provide a bounce at some point with US$ weaker.

Stocks to watch  TSLA, NEM, GLNG, M, AMD, TLT,   NVDA   Spec Names   GFI 

Pre-800ET
Indices USO, EFA, GLD, TLT, XLY, FEZ, IBIT, UNG, FXI, IWM, UUP
S&P500  TSLA, WRK, FCX, NEM, QCOM, VST, LLY
Movers GLNG, M, AU, GFI, STM, FLNC, SMR, TECK, TSLA, BCS, NVO, WRK, ARM, TSM, PAAS, BP, NU, SE, SEA, HUT, BTDR, IREN, MSTR, MARA, CLSK, HDB, ZIM, CORZ, COIN

Trade Idea: GDX

Goldminers are moving higher as US$ and yields fall with USA employment data and weaker PMI Tues. Technically extended but momentum traders can look to trade towards 37, 37.5. GDX is mostly NEM and GOLD which are large caps. If looking for smaller with more juice, can consider AU, GFI, KGC, EGO.