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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.42%  Currencies: USA$  +.06%  Vix: -1.5%

·       News:  USA: Powell 10ET; Japan : Machine tool orders y/y 9.7% vs 4.2% previously
Stocks:  NVDA +1.4% Upgrade ; INTC +2.8% Its a beaten down semi, highly shorted; BP -4.5% warning
 Bitcoin May be basing HUT BTDR MARA CLSK
Overview: USA SPY 556.05 support 555 553.3 550 and resistance 557 560 SPY expected move +/- 2.3. QQQ 496.7  with resistance 500 and support 495 493  expected move +/- 3.2. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (557.3-553.3), QQQ (500.6-494), IWM (203.6-201) SPX(5593-5552.8). Global indices are mixed with USA flattish, Europe lower, Japan higher. Macro is slightly negative with yields and US$ higher. Powell and Yellen are testifying in Washington today and tomorrow and their comments will be market moving. Suggestions of rate cuts or issuance of less debt will be bullish bonds, equity and bearish US$ and converse.  Premarket the crowding into Semis, AI and MAG7 continues. NVDA QCOM AAPL received price target raises. Pattern of hedgefunds squeezing individual names into a low volume market. Yesterday AMD TSLA NVDA AAPL SMCI were pumped. These are shorted dated options expiring on Friday. Today NVDA and INTC are at the top of the pump list. SPX is positive gamma which means dips will be bought and pops sold but caveat today is Powell/Yellen can cause an outside move. Market is positioned long with SPX5600 upside target and very little protection. Key support level for SPX is 5500 with the potential for larger moves below.

Stocks to watch  IBIT, INTC, NVDA, COIN, LLY, TSLA, BP   Spec Names   SMCI, HUT, MNDY

Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, ETHE, UNG, XLK, SMH, QQQ, XLK, USO, TLT, XLE, FXI, IWM
S&P500  INTC, NVDA, SMCI
Movers ARLO, CC, INTC, BTDR, DJT, CLSK, CRH, MNDY, COIN, MARA, ASTS, FUTU,  IBN, SMCI, BILI, IREN, SEDG, BP, WERN, BCS, NVO, CHWY, MT, TRMD, YETI, HSBC

Trade Idea: INTC

INTC has been an underperformer for years and is heavily shorted. It bounced Monday on an upgrade and likely short-covering.  Momentum traders may wish to long over 34 but I would prefer to look for a pullback > 32.5. Earnings July 25 so very little time before they will need to disclose the state of the business, which has so far been uninspiring.  Caveat Powell and CPI this week which will move markets. Expected move +/-3.8 into earrings week  or +/-10%