Swing Trade Idea – August 1, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond+.5% Currencies: USA$ +.3% YEN -.2% Vix: +.32%
·
News: USA: USA Jobless claims 8:30 ET; USA ISM mfg PMI 10:00 ET
UK: 25bps rate cut EUR: MFG PMI 45.8 minimal improvement; UE rate
6.5% vs 6.4%
Stocks: ARM-8.6%, ETSY-3%, MRNA-14.9%, HSY-5%, QCOM-0.8%, WDC-4%, MBLY-9%,
W-12%, META+8.7% EPS
Overview: SPY 553.6 with support at 550 and 545, and resistance at 555.7;
SPY expected move +/- 4.9. QQQ 473.3 with resistance at 475 and 477.5, and
support at 470 and 465; QQQ expected move +/- 6.5. Global indices are
mixed with Europe and Japan down but USA indices higher. USA is lifted by large
cap tech following META earnings. NVDA continues higher after a massive move
Wed with shorts squeezed and hyperscalers forecasting higher capital
expenditure. AMZN and AAPL, which are still to report, are also contributing.
Semis sector is higher due to NVDA however ARM (which sells to most semi co’s)
is down on a weaker forecast as is QCOM LRCX. SPY and QQQ are approaching the
top of the weekly expected move while IWM is in the middle and is lagging large
caps. USA PMI at 10ET may be market moving. Key today is the MAG7 and NVDA
& META in particular.
Expected
moves SPY (555.7-545.9), QQQ (477.5-464.5), IWM (228.9-218.9), and SPX
(5571-5473)
Stocks to watch NVDA, META, AMZN, LLY, MRNA, W, WDC
Spec Names CDNA, SHAK, SAVA
Pre-800ET
Indices XLC, UNG, QQQ, SPY, XLK, ARKK, XLY, SLV, TLT, XLRE, SMH, ETHE, EFA,
IBIT, EWC
S&P500 APTV, META, LLY, NVDA, SMCI, AMZN, ANET, GEV,
CRWD, CCL, AAPL, FSLR, MRNA, HSY, WDC, HES, ALB, ETSY, QCOM, MMM, ON
Movers CDNA, SHAK, CVNA, TMDX, LTH, APTV, RCM, META, SAVA, ZETA, BTU,
RDDT, RUN, SNAP, LLY, ATEC, MRNA, W, TENB, CFLT, ARM, TS, ARM, MBLY, CROX, STM, GT, ALB,
ETSY
Trade Idea: AMZN
AMZN reports after the close. The expected move is +/-11. Short term very extended after a drop and pop Wed. Market will be focused on AWS revenue growth and capital expenditure forecast, which will impact NVDA. Intraday 190 is a long trigger and pullbacks > 187.5 may be buyable. Below 187.5 look for 185.