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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.13%  Currencies:  USA$  +.09% YEN  -.66% Vix: 19.25

·         News:  USA: PPI 830ET UK: UE claims rising EU: German economic  declining
Stocks:  HD-3.5%, ONON-5.5%, SE -.8%, TME-7.5% EPS SBUX+13%, CMG -11% CMG CEO moving over

Overview: SPY 534.5 support 531 530 528 and resistance 535 538 540  SPY expected move +/- 4.9 QQQ 454 with resistance 455 457 support 450 445  expected move +/- 5.5. Pre PPI: USA indices rising led by NASI with NVDA the driver. Yields and US$ are flat. Commodities, which popped Monday are being sold premarket. HD cut forecast citing higher interest rates and lower consumer sentiment which will likely spill over to LOW and WHR and potentially a harbinger for retail sales. Premarket HD is being bought after the initial earnings reaction and ONON has made a substantial bounce. Both names are worth watching as the reaction is similar to MCD which sold down on poor earnings and then bounced as shorts covered.  Market will move on PPI today with CPI Wed. Typical reaction is lower PPI is bullish bonds and equity with most shorted names moving more. NVDA is a squeeze name with call option buyers trying to drive it higher. SBUX and CMG are in play, with SBUX popping and CMG dumping on the CEO moving. *** PPI: 0.1% m/m; 2.2% y/y’ Core 2.4% y/y, 0.0% m/m. Market reaction positive but QQQ still outperforming.   ***   Volatility has retreated however Vix futures are still inverted in the short term which means that risk has not totally dissipated. Expected moves SPY(538.2-528.4) QQQ (456.9-445.9) IWM(207.6-201.6) SPX (5393.4-5295.4)


Stocks to watch SBUX, NVDA, SMCI, AMZN,CMG, HD Spec Names   

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, MSOS, XLK, QQQ, SPY, ETHE, SLV, XLE, GDX, IBIT, GLD, XLY

S&P500 SMCI, NVDA, HRL, HD, OXY, LOW

NASI PDD, NVDA
Ex BILI, GFI, DELL, MARA, VSAT, TME, ONON, WES, GMAB, DJT, STM

Trade Idea: SBUX

SBUX has moved 13% on the CMG CEO moving while CMG is lower.  Straddle approach to SBUX with 80/85//90 calls potential upside targets as a gamma squeeze has been created. Alternative is fade once the pop runs out of gas and investors underwater exit.

CMG is a potential long trade as the initial drop is used as a buying opportunity since the underlying business hasn’t changed but one needs to take care as stops get hit. 50 is the line in the sand that needs to hold.