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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Negative global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.56%  Currencies:  USA$  -.24%, YEN +.7%, Vix: 15.5

·         News:  USA: Building permits, housing starts 830ET; UofM consumer Sentiment 10ET CAD : Housing starts 815ET
Stocks: AMAT-2.3%   EPS  NVDA-.5% 13F NKE+.7% Upgrade META-.7% EU requesting into after CrowdTangle discontinued.
Overview: SPY 551.5  support 550 549.5 545 and resistance 555 556.7, SPY expected move +/- 3.65, QQQ 472.9  with resistance 475 479.3  support 470 465  expected move +/- 4.9. Indices and many MAG7 names are very stretched after the recent rebound hence downside risk is greater than upside. Much of the move was outside regular trading hours which creates gaps which run the risk of being filled. Macro setup is risk-off with commodities lower, yields lower, Yen higher, gold higher. I have not seen any obvious catalyst aside from low liquidity, which makes moves more dramatic. Opex today will reduce gamma, and stocks with a lot of out of the money calls expiring today may see downside movement as calls expire. USA housing data premarket will be important as will Consumer Sentiment 10ET as market is hyper sensitive to data as narrative flip flops between recession and goldilocks. Macro setup today premarket is closer to recession whereas Thurs was goldilocks (spec companies bid). NVDA has been dominating the market direction and there are very large call positions which are currently hedged with stock which will be sold unless price rises sharply today. SPY 550 is a good bull/bear level with a gap below to 545. Will see if bears have teeth today or whether they are Teddy bears.   Expected moves SPY(556.7-549.4), QQQ (479.3-469.5), IWM(214-209.8), SPX (5579.7-5506.7)


Stocks to watch BABA, NKE, GLD, TLT, AMAT, NVDA,   Spec Names VSCO, SPHR, FLUT   

Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, GLD, ETHE, FXI, GDX, TLT, USO, UNG, SMH, XLE, XLK, QQQ, ARKK

S&P500 AMAT, NVDA, AMD, TSLA, INTC, AVGO, WMT, META,

NASI AMAT, NVDA, MRVL, AMD, INTC, AVGO

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA is the most important stock in the market today with Aug Opex. There are large call positions at 120 strike (90k)  and a substantial number above that are hedged with long stock. A move below 120, especially later in the day can lead to 118 or lower. Alternatively call buyers can step up and squeeze it again with targets 122-125. Note NVDA is at the Jul23 higher where sellers stepped in so a battleground level.