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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond+.4% Currencies: USA$ -.3% YEN +.3% Vix: +8.2%

·         News: USA: USA Jobs report 8:30 ET UK: 25bps rate cut; FED speakers 12:00 ET
Stocks: AMZN-8%, INTC-22%, BKNG-4.9%, SNAP-18%, TEAM-11%, MCHP-6.5%, AAPL+.2%, DASH+10%, NET+6.8% EPS
Overview: SPY 537.7 with support at 536 and 535, and resistance at 540 and 550; SPY expected move +/- 6.6. QQQ 452.5 with resistance at 455, 458, 460, and 465, and support at 451 and 450; QQQ expected move +/- 8.5.  Global indices are lower ahead of USA non-farm payrolls after an outsized drop Thursday post a weak USA ISM mfg print which has flipped the narrative to a slowing USA economy. Non-farm payrolls reported 114k vs 176k expected and UE rate 4.3% vs 4.1% expected. Initial reaction was SPY and QQQ moving lower and are now trading below daily and weekly expected move. AMZN earnings miss has taken the stock below the expected move with risk that can trend lower. INTC rocked the semi sector with earnings miss, capital equipment cut and major layoffs. AAPL is flattish on earnings beat but iPhone revenue is lower y/y and total revenue +5% y/y. SPY has broken a major gamma level and 530 is a potential downside target which is a 50% Fib from April with some volume support. Below that is 520 which is high volume and a 61.8 Fib. With volatility high and Opex today there is potential for strong bounces as shorts cover.  Gamma negative means selling leads to selling but as SPX approaches 5300 there is natural support from the option positioning. Shorting at this point is somewhat risky as now shorting in the hole with the potential for a face ripping rally on short covering so take care.

Expected moves SPY (549.6-536.4), QQQ (468.2-451.2), IWM (221.4-211.8), and SPX (5512-5381)

Stocks to watch GLD, TLT, AEM, NVDA, INTC, MSF

Spec Names CDNA, SHAK, SAVA

Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, SLV, UNG, GDX, TLT, GLD, ETHE, SMH, XLY, XLK, USO, KRE, IWM, EFA, SPY, XBI, IGV, EWC, ARKK, XRT
S&P500 AMD, K, INTC, AMZN, MCHP, SMCI, NVDA, AMAT, MU, ABNB, LULU, ORCL, IP, CRWD, MSFT, MS, GOOGL, CCL
Movers DASH, NET, ROKU, AU, BUD, SNY, GSK, SQ, AEM, AMD, K, CNK, INTC, PCOR, SNAP, TEAM, AMZN, MUFG, ASML, JMIA, TSM, SMCI, ARM, DJT, NVDA, PLTR, NU, AMAT

Trade Idea: SPY

SPY has pulled back on a weak non-farm payrolls report which followed Thursday’s very weak ISM mfg report. SPY is below the daily and weekly expected move. 535 is a good bull/bear line with 533, 530 potential support and upside 540 545. High volatility and negative gamma can lead to large moves in either direction. Short covering can lead to an upside squeeze as overnight put options will be expiring.  AMZN and NVDA are in play today, in either direction. Semis are selling down after INTC results and AMZN is trading below the expected move. On Friday opex put buyers can monetize which can lead to bounces late in the day so take care.