Swing Trade Idea – August 20, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.15% Currencies: USA$ -.03% YEN -.04% Vix: 14.85
· News: USA:
Bostic, Barr Speaking China: No rate change, expected by China stocks
lower CDN: CPI
Stocks: VIPS-7.9%, FN+9.5%, PANW +2%, LOW+.3%, EPS BA -1.6% 777 test
fleet grounded
· Overview: SPY 560
support 557 555 and resistance 560 562 SPY expected move +/- 2.6 QQQ
481.6 with resistance 485 support 478 475 expected move +/- 3.6.
USA indices are flat premarket after Monday’s low volume squeeze. Today no
major data to move markets so it’s in the hands of 0DTE options with SPX5600 a
major level. MAG7 are today led by TSLA GOOGL with NVDA paused at 130, which is
the next big level. AMD (Mondays idea) is continuing yesterday’s pop. Earnings:
LOW is up in spite of poor results, and PANW higher on lukewarm guidance
indicating that market doesn’t care about the numbers. Precious metals are
strong with Silver leading gold. Industrial metals are up again in spite of
China still stalled and no new support from PBOC. US$ continues to fall and is
technically oversold but as it falls it lifts USA equities and precious metals.
Bitcoin has not benefited from the US$ falling but is showing signs of life,
lifting the associated stocks. VIX futures expire Wed which should result in
volatility rising, this aligns with FOMC meeting minutes and may affect the
rapid ascent of indices fueled by Vol’s rapid collapse. Monday the speculative
traders were chasing space stocks e.g. ASTS and Monkeypox e.g. VRAX, GOVX,
APDN, EBS; can watch today. Expected moves SPY(562-557) QQQ (485-478)
IWM(217-213) SPX (5634-5582)
Stocks to watch GOOGL, AMD, SLV, UNG, PANW, CRWD, LLY, NVDA, BA Spec Names IBIT, CLSK,
ASPN
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, UNG, SLV, ETHE, GDX, GLD, MSOS, XLV, FXI, TLT, US$
S&P500 LLY, PANW, AMD, CRWD, TSLA, PARA, DXCM, BAC, BA
NASI PANW, AMD,
TSLA, CRWD, DXCM, PDD
R2K ASPN, MSTR, CLSK, MARA, SAVA, KYMR, FRO
Trade Idea: AMD
AMD was Monday’s idea and hit target. AMD is now at the top of the weekly expected move which may be resistance but there are large call positions at 155, 157.5 and 160 so potential to squeeze higher while over 155. AMD has made a 50% bounce of the dip so need to look for retracement. The 61.8 retracement is 162, which is above the call open interest for this week’s expiration.