Swing Trade Idea – August 22, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.7% Currencies: USA$ +.32% YEN -1% Vix: 16.15
· News: USA:
UE claims 830ET; mfg, services PMI 945ET EUR: MFG PMI continues to
be weak, Services improving JP: mfg PMI < 50 and weaker than expected
Stocks: SNOW -10%, URBN-11.5%, VIK-3%, AAP-11%, TD-2.3%, NTES-5.8%,
BIDU-0.5%, AAP-20%, SNPS+1.9%, A+1.4%, BILI+2.7%, EPS
· Overview: SPY 562.4
support 560 556.6 and resistance 565 SPY expected move +/- 4 QQQ 484.8 with
resistance 485 486.1 support 480 478 expected move +/- 3.6. USA indices
muted premarket falling with Asian session and then rising in NY premarket.
Macro set-up is negative with US$ and yields rising but Yen is sharply lower
which is usually positive for the Yen carry trade and hence the MAG7 and
negative for commodities. PMI 945ET will be market moving as inflation concerns
have given way to USA economic strength concerns. UE claims 232k was exactly
inline through some amazing coincidence and may counteract the fears of rising
unemployment. SNOW lower post EPS on weaker forecast may weight on other cloud
companies like CRM and ORCL. TD is lower post EPS, have set aside $2.6B for
potential money laundry fines and selling SCHW shares to compensate which is
weighing on SCHW. AAP URBN sharply down on weaker forecasts adding to retail
concerns. Retail short squeezed Wed along with high short interest names. SPX
is in positive gamma which means market makers will sell rips and buy dips with
5600 major support. MAG7 are being led by NVDA and there may be a pivot into
semis as software is weaker after SNOW earnings and MSFT cutting Azure revenue
forecast. Powell Friday is the big event of the week Fri so expect some churn
today. If follow Demark signals, there are Demark 9 sell signals for SPY QQQ
and several MAG7, but not verified on the charts yet Expected
moves SPY(564.6-556.6) QQQ (486.1-478.9) IWM(218.4-212.6) SPX (5650.8-5590.9)
Stocks to watch NVDA, AMD, SNOW, AAP, URBN, TD, NFLX, Spec Names HIMS
Pre-800ET
Indices SMH, XLK, FXI, QQQ, US$, SPY, UNG, GDX, IBIT, TLT, GLD, ETHE
S&P500 EL, PARA, AVGO, CRWD, BEN, NVDA, SMCI, VST, SCHW, NFLX
NASI
AVGO, PDD, CRWD, NFLX
R2K HIMS, IOVA, SMCI, URBN
Trade Idea: NVDA
NVDA, the focus of the option market is testing the 130 level yet again with call positions target 135. They are trying to squeeze it higher but so far unsuccessful. Long > 130 or pullback > 128.5 which is volume support. Premarket high 131. NVDA earnings next week Aug28