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  • Swing Trade Idea – August 22, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.7% Currencies: USA$ +.32% YEN -1% Vix: 16.15

    ·       NewsUSA: UE claims 830ET; mfg, services PMI 945ET EUR:  MFG PMI continues to be weak, Services improving JP: mfg PMI < 50 and weaker than expected
    Stocks:
    SNOW -10%, URBN-11.5%, VIK-3%, AAP-11%, TD-2.3%, NTES-5.8%, BIDU-0.5%, AAP-20%, SNPS+1.9%, A+1.4%, BILI+2.7%, EPS 

    ·       Overview: SPY 562.4 support 560 556.6 and resistance 565 SPY expected move +/- 4 QQQ 484.8 with resistance 485 486.1 support 480 478  expected move +/- 3.6. USA indices muted premarket falling with Asian session and then rising in NY premarket. Macro set-up is negative with US$ and yields rising but Yen is sharply lower which is usually positive for the Yen carry trade and hence the MAG7 and negative for commodities. PMI 945ET will be market moving as inflation concerns have given way to USA economic strength concerns. UE claims 232k was exactly inline through some amazing coincidence and may counteract the fears of rising unemployment. SNOW lower post EPS on weaker forecast may weight on other cloud companies like CRM and ORCL. TD is lower post EPS, have set aside $2.6B for potential money laundry fines and selling SCHW shares to compensate which is weighing on SCHW. AAP URBN sharply down on weaker forecasts adding to retail concerns. Retail short squeezed Wed along with high short interest names. SPX is in positive gamma which means market makers will sell rips and buy dips with 5600 major support. MAG7 are being led by NVDA and there may be a pivot into semis as software is weaker after SNOW earnings and MSFT cutting Azure revenue forecast. Powell Friday is the big event of the week Fri so expect some churn today. If follow Demark signals, there are Demark 9 sell signals for SPY QQQ and several MAG7, but not verified on the charts yet     Expected moves SPY(564.6-556.6) QQQ (486.1-478.9) IWM(218.4-212.6) SPX (5650.8-5590.9)


    Stocks to watch
    NVDA, AMD, SNOW, AAP, URBN, TD, NFLX,  Spec Names HIMS

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    SMH, XLK, FXI, QQQ, US$, SPY, UNG, GDX, IBIT, TLT, GLD, ETHE

    S&P500 EL, PARA, AVGO, CRWD, BEN, NVDA, SMCI, VST, SCHW, NFLX

    NASI AVGO, PDD, CRWD, NFLX
    R2K HIMS, IOVA, SMCI, URBN


     

    Trade Idea: NVDA

    NVDA, the focus of the option market is testing the 130 level yet again with call positions target 135. They are trying to squeeze it higher but so far unsuccessful. Long > 130 or pullback > 128.5 which is volume support. Premarket high 131. NVDA earnings next week Aug28

     

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