Swing Trade Idea – August 23, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.08%, Currencies: USA$ -.06% YEN +.07% Vix: 16.55
· News: USA:
Powell 10ET
Stocks: BIDU-1.8%, PTON-2.6%, WDAY+15%, CAVA+7%, ROST+5.6%
BILL+3% EPS
· Overview: SPY 559.7 support 555 551 and resistance 560 561 563 SPY expected move +/- 5.1 QQQ 479.3 with resistance 480 481.5 485 support 475 468 expected move +/- 6.6. USA indices have steadily risen following the Thurs pullback. USA indices are being led by Nasi with outsized earnings reaction by WDAY and positive NVDA comments. MAG7 names are all higher and speculative tech names (ARKK) are also strong. Could be just short covering so take care. Powell speaking at 10ET and will be market moving. Indices are approaching the top of the daily expected move so potential for a trend day higher if can break above or alternatively continue the move lower. Expectations are for Powell to be dovish so risk is whether he suggests that economy is weakening towards recession or whether he suggests the economy is strong and only minor cuts are required. Usually IV falls post an event, which is positive for equities and what the equity markets are front running. SPX5600 is a good bull/bear level to watch today.
Expected moves SPY(561.3-551.1) QQQ (481.5-468.2) IWM(217.9-209.3) SPX
(5621.6-5519.6)
Stocks to watch NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, WDAY, ROST, CAVA, USO,0 BIDU Spec Names IBIT
Pre-800ET
Indices USO, ETHE, SLV, GDX, ARKK, IBIT, FXI, IGV, SMH, XLK, EWC, QQQ, UNG
S&P500 ROSS, GM, AVGO, NVDA, CRWD, QCOM, AMZN, AMAT, LVS, MU, PARA
NASI WDAY, ROSS,
AVGO, NVDA, CRWD, AMZN, QCOM, MU
R2K WRBY, MSTR, MARA, CLSK, CELH, HIMS
Trade Idea: NVDA
NVDA, failed to breakout Thursday and the reversal was a major contributor to the pullback. 125 is the line in the sand today with 130 the upside target. Analysts are out today talking bullish for next weeks earnings. Below 125 watch Thursday low.