Swing Trade Idea – August 28, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.23% Currencies: USA$ +.47%, YEN -.3%, BTC/USD -3.8% Vix: 15.7
· News: USA:
NVDA earnings after close
Stocks: PVH -7%, FL -6.6%, BBWI -1.4%, ANF -10%, SJM -3%, RY
+2.2%, CHWY +.7%, AMBA +19%, BOX +8.6%, JWN +2.9%, S +1.7%, KSS +3% EPS
· Overview: SPY 561.2 support 558 560 559 557 and resistance 563 564 SPY expected move +/- 2.4 QQQ 476.3 with resistance 480 483 support 475 473 470 expected move +/- 6. USA large-cap indices are flattish premarket but pulling back from the European session high but small caps are indicating weakness with a drop zone below current price. Big macro move with US$ moving higher after several weeks of selling which is putting pressure on commodities but surprisingly not on equities which would normally move inverse. All eyes are on NVDA earnings after the close due to its market cap and a 10% expected move. USA stock market dependent on sales of GPUs to hyperscalers LOL! In play today are the earnings names that reported where one can look for continuation or reversal of the moves. Mixed bag from retail but companies appear to be cautious into Q4. Bitcoin is getting hit along with most currencies, it is below 60k which is an important level. CRWD and CRM are other 2 big names reporting after the close and are worth watching. SPX5600 is a good bull/bear level to watch today.
Expected moves SPY(564-559) QQQ (482.8-470.8) IWM(220.7-216.7) SPX
(5649.8-5601.8)
Stocks to watch NVDA, AAPL, FL, ANF, SJM Spec Names AMBA,
BOX, CHWY
Pre-800ET
Indices MSOS, UUP, IBIT, SLV, GDX, USO, ETHE, XME, GLD, IWM, XLE
S&P500 BBWI, SJM, SMCI, FCX, NEM, SLB, SW
NASI PDD
ALL AMBA, AVPT, BOX, SMTC, KSS, CHWY, JWN, S, INFY, NBIX, NCNO,
ANF, PDCO, FL, PVH, BZ, AVDL, BCS, BBWI, AU, SJM
Trade Idea: NVDA
NVDA is reporting after the close with an expected move of +/-10% which will move the SMH, QQQ, SPY given the weighting. It also represents a healthy percentage of the S&P500 earnings gain. NVDA can be traded alternatively through SMH or major holdings such as AVGO. Look for AI names like SMCI DELL MU and supplier TSM to move along. Elevated IV enables some interesting option trades with high reward/risk ratio that will be sharing with option room members.