Swing Trade Idea – August 30, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up
- Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
- Yields: 30Y Bond -.15% Currencies: USA$ +.21%, YEN -.6%, BTC/USD +0.9%, Vix: 15.7
- News: USA: PCE 830ET; Consumer
Sentiment 10ET EUR: CPI inline 2.2% core 2.8% inline CDN:
GDP 830ET
Stocks: ULTA-8%, ESTC-26.8%, DELL+5%, MRVL+10.8%, LULU-4.5%, MDB+14.7%, ADSK+4.8%, EPS EBS+18% Monkeypox vaccine approved; INTC reorg - Overview: SPY 561.7 support 560 555 554 and
resistance 561.9 563, SPY expected move +/- 3.5, QQQ 474.6
with resistance 475 478 support 470 466 465, expected move +/-
4.6. SPX5600 is a good bull/bear level to watch today. USA indices
have been rising overnight which seems to be a pattern for Fridays,
with usually a sharp pull intraday. PCE was inline. US$ is higher which is
usually negative for equities and Yen is sharply lower which is positive
for the carry trade but large moves in currencies is not positive. SPY and
QQQ are close to the top of daily expected moves which can act as
resistance or acceleration above. Nasi is the leading index with
semis higher after MRVL earnings (met and gave modest guidance) and INTC
discussing splitting the company. MRVL mentioned the magic word AI which
causes a Pavlovian reaction to buy NVDA, MU, AVGO. MDB and MRVL have
moved more than the expected move which can lead to greater moves higher.
ULTA and ESTC have exceeded to the downside and can continue running or
bounce as shorts cover. It’s the last day of the month with a long
weekend, usually IV drops into a weekend which is bullish. Consumer
sentiment 10ET may be market moving. The tendency to ramp indices and then
dump intraday is something to look out for
Expected moves SPY(561.9-554.8), QQQ (475.3-466), IWM(222.1-215.5), SPX (5627-5556)
Stocks to watch MRVL, NVDA, NFLX, DELL, MDB, TSLA, ULTA, Spec Names AFRM, NTNX
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, SMH, FXI, MSOS, XLK, ARKK, QQQ, UNG, IWM, KRE, SLV,
SPY, ETHE, USO
S&P500 ADSK, INTC, AVGO, LULU, SMCI, MU, CRWD, AMD, ON, TSLA, HPE, NVDA, ULTA
NASI MDB, MRVL, ADSK, INTC, PDD, LULU, AVGO, MU,
TSLA,
IWM BBIO, ANF, SMCI, MARA, A, CLSK, TALO
Trade Idea: MRVL
MRVL is a potential runaway to the upside after an inline earnings report and modest forecast.May see a pullback at open but if continues to run, 80 is the first target but there are other targets 83-90 with large call positions if 80 is breached and a gamma squeeze occurs. Earnings report does not warrant the move; but there must be shorts getting squeezed.