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  • Swing Trade Idea – August 30, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive  global set-up

    • Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
    • Yields: 30Y Bond -.15%  Currencies:  USA$  +.21%, YEN -.6%, BTC/USD +0.9%,  Vix: 15.7
    • NewsUSA: PCE 830ET; Consumer Sentiment 10ET EUR: CPI inline 2.2% core 2.8% inline CDN:  GDP 830ET
      Stocks: ULTA-8%, ESTC-26.8%,  DELL+5%, MRVL+10.8%, LULU-4.5%, MDB+14.7%, ADSK+4.8%,  EPS EBS+18% Monkeypox vaccine approved; INTC reorg
    • Overview: SPY 561.7 support 560 555 554 and resistance 561.9 563, SPY expected move +/- 3.5,  QQQ 474.6  with resistance 475 478  support 470 466 465,  expected move +/- 4.6.  SPX5600 is a good bull/bear level to watch today. USA indices have been rising overnight which seems to be a pattern for Fridays,  with usually a sharp pull intraday. PCE was inline. US$ is higher which is usually negative for equities and Yen is sharply lower which is positive for the carry trade but large moves in currencies is not positive. SPY and QQQ are close to the top of daily expected moves which can act as resistance or acceleration above.  Nasi is the leading index with semis higher after MRVL earnings (met and gave modest guidance) and INTC discussing splitting the company. MRVL mentioned the magic word AI which causes a Pavlovian reaction to buy NVDA, MU, AVGO.  MDB and MRVL have moved more than the expected move which can lead to greater moves higher. ULTA and ESTC have exceeded to the downside and can continue running or bounce as shorts cover. It’s the last day of the month with a long weekend, usually IV drops into a weekend which is bullish. Consumer sentiment 10ET may be market moving. The tendency to ramp indices and then dump intraday is something to look out for

       Expected moves SPY(561.9-554.8), QQQ (475.3-466), IWM(222.1-215.5), SPX (5627-5556)


      Stocks to watch MRVL, NVDA, NFLX, DELL, MDB, TSLA, ULTA, Spec Names  AFRM, NTNX 

    Pre-800ET
    Indices KWEB, SMH, FXI, MSOS, XLK, ARKK, QQQ, UNG, IWM, KRE, SLV, SPY,  ETHE, USO

    S&P500 ADSK, INTC, AVGO, LULU, SMCI, MU, CRWD, AMD, ON, TSLA, HPE, NVDA, ULTA

    NASI MDB, MRVL, ADSK, INTC, PDD, LULU, AVGO, MU, TSLA,
    IWM BBIO, ANF, SMCI, MARA, A, CLSK, TALO






     

    Trade Idea: MRVL

    MRVL is a potential runaway to the upside after an inline earnings report and modest forecast.May see a pullback at open but if continues to run, 80 is the first target but there are other targets 83-90 with large call positions if 80 is breached and a gamma squeeze occurs. Earnings report does not warrant the move; but there must be shorts getting squeezed.

     

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