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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond+.47%  Currencies:  USA$  -.57% YEN  +2.9% Vix: 31.4

·       News: Japan: YEN spike and Nikkei drop triggered circuit breakers. Yen carry trade unwind is slamming global equities with Nasi most affected in USA markets.  USA: ISM Services PMI 10ET CNY: Caixin Services PMI
Stocks: NVDA-13% Blackwell delayed; INTC Poor earnings result spilling over to other semis; Unwind of carry trade affects most wildly held names   AAPL-8% Buffet sold some of his stake; AAPL had not been sold down as much as other MAG7 hence more room to sell
Overview: SPY 511.2 support 510 500 and resistance 520 530 SPY expected move +/- 7. QQQ 422.9 with resistance 430 440 support 430 415 410 expected move +/- 8.1. Global indices are lower with Japan the epicenter. Yen carry trade is quickly unwinding which means buying Yen and selling equities. Nasi big names were the other side of the trade and are being sold. Nikkei circuit breakers were triggered as it dropped 12.5%. Korea, Taiwan also large declines, which are tech heavy indices. Vix futures are inverted with short term futures > longer dated which is a major risk-off signal. On a day like today there will be margin calls and one may see “safe” assets sold so need to be wary. ES 200sma 5043 and April low 5000 potential support. NQ is below 200sma with April low 17192 potential support. IV is very elevated which means options are expensive so spread trades may work better on directional trades. Selling vol may seem attractive but with Vix futures inverted and potential for forced selling one needs to be very careful selling vol. Some risk of central bank activity, especially BOJ. These kind of moves are liquidity and flow related and not fundamental and technicals will not necessarily work so take care. Expected moves SPY(539.9-535.9) QQQ (456.9-440.7) IWM(213-204.8) SPX (5416.6-5276.6)


Stocks to watch TLT, COIN, AFRM, AI, ARM, NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, IBIT Spec Names   

Trade Idea: QQQ

QQQ is a victim of an unwind of the Yen carry trade. Today there is potential for margin calls which can lead to forced selling. Premarket low 420 is a level that one can lean on with upside target the 200sma at 429 and downside target the April low at 413. The safest thing today is let the dust settle as markets will be fast as institutions adjust positions.