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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond-.62%  Currencies:  USA$  +.2% YEN  -1.4% Vix: 22.3%

·       News:  Japan: Soothing words from MOF that they are paying attention to volatility has led to Nikkei +5% and Yen lower which will dampen the carry trade concerns. Canada: PMI10ET USA:10Y bond auction 13ET
Stocks: DIS+3%, UPST+26%, FTNT+16%, VFC+7%, GPN+5.8%, AXON+3.7%, SHOP+18%, SMCI-12%, ABNB-16%, NVO -4.5%, AMGN-2.3%, TREX-15%, HLT-3%,  EPS

Overview: SPY 528 support 525 520 and resistance 529 530 535 SPY expected move +/- 6.9. QQQ 446.2 with resistance 447.5 450 support 445 440 expected move +/- 4. Global indices bounced overnight with the Asian session as Japan MOF calmed the currency markets. USA equity market is risk-on setup with high short interest names bid. Indices are already at the top of daily expected moves which means it can be trend day higher or a sell the rip fakeout. The volatility futures have pulled back which is positive but remain inverted which means institutions are still short term hedged. Negative gamma setup means that large moves in either direction are possible. Bond auction at 13ET may be market moving. MAG7 are generally strong with NVDA MSFT leading and AAPL TSLA lagging. Given the extension, keep an eye for pullbacks on the open. SPX Premarket leaders are oil, semis and spec tech. Hot stocks to watch: SHOP FTNT to upside SMCI ABNB to downside. Expected moves SPY(529-515) QQQ (443.5-439.5) IWM(209.4-199.4) SPX (5309-5171)


Stocks to watch FTNT, SHOP, NVDA, ABNB, SMCI, LLY, NVO Spec Names LUMN, UPST  

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, USO, ARKK, SMH, FXI, MSOS, IWM, KRE, EFA, GDX, XLE, TLT, ETHE

S&P500 FTNT, WYNN, ENPH, BAC, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, CRWD, QCOM, C, OXY, META, AMD, ANET, CRL, SMCI, ABNB, AMGN, LLY, HPE

·       NASI FTNT, ASML, MRVL, NVDA, CRWD, MSFT, AMZN, QCOM, META, AMD, MU, INTC, ABNB, AMGN

   

Trade Idea: SHOP

SHOP has moved almost 2x the expected move  on what is likely short covering. Straddle approach: above 65 look for 70 which is a high call strike or look for pullbacks > 60 for long. Below 60 potential fade indicating that they are selling the pop.