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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.25% Currencies: USA$ -.26% YEN +.79% BTC/USD +.01% Vix: 17.0

·       News: USA: Consumer confidence 10ET Eur: Industrial production 0.3% m/m

·       Stocks: RH+21% ADBE-8% EPS ORCL+6.4% bold forecast out several years BA-4.3% strike ; Chinese names PDD BABA are trading lower after Biden admin announces crackdown on Chinese R-commerce platforms. Will require congressional action. Some say negative for META since TEEMU big customer.
Overview: SPY 560.3 support 555 and resistance 562.3 565 SPY expected move +/- 3.3  QQQ 473.6 with resistance 475 477.1 support 470 469.3 expected move +/- 3.9. USA indices are up premarket with small caps outperforming and high short interest names strong. MAG7 are mixed after strong moves Thurs on the back of call buying which expire today. Should MAG7 stall today, the call expiration can be a negative drag in the afternoon today. SPY and QQQ are extended, well above the weekly expected move as are MSFT AMZN NVDA TSLA. Statistically stretched can continue but today’s Opex can act as a brake. AAPL and GOOGL are 2 MAG7s that are not stretched. ADBE beat earnings but forecast was weaker and stock hammered and may weigh on other cloud/AI names ; however ORCL held a conference and made bold forecasts for 2026, 2029 🙂 which is moving the stock sharply higher. China names are down on potential govt action against them. Some chatter that ETSY can benefit and stock is higher. Yesterday, the highly shorted retail sector was bid and premarket is continuing (DG DLTR W) and solar group is bid again. No idea how long the short squeeze can continue but premarket set-up is for a short squeeze which can be a detriment to the large caps that everyone is long.

Expected moves SPY(562.3-555.8) QQQ(477.1-469.3) IWM(213.6-209.6) SPX(5628.3-5563.3)


Stocks to watch RH, ETSY, ORCL, AAPL, GDX, MRNA, ADBE, META    Spec Names SMMT, W, DLTR 

Pre-800ET
Indices IWM, MSOS, GDX, USO, KRE, SLV, XBI, XRT, UNG, FXI, GLD, XLF, IBIT, KWEB, UUP, ETHE

S&P500 ETSY, ORCL, VST, FSLR, DG, DLTR, MU, ENPH, AVGO, MRNA, ADBE

NASI DLTR, MU, AVGO, ADBE, PDD, MRNA, AZN
All RH, W, ETSY, ORCL, VST, U, SMMT, ARM, FSLR, RDFN, DG, UPST, APP, RTO, ADBE, PDD, BA, MRNA, BHP, ARCC, AZN, BABA

Trade Idea: META

META is extended above weekly expected move and pulling back on statements from the Biden Whitehouse on cracking down on Chinese e-commerce platforms. PDD (TEEMU) is a big customer hence META selling down premarket. Stock was driven higher by calls bought in last 2 days hence can move lower quickly. Day trade short idea on bounces with targets 515, 510, 505. Thurs breakout level was 514 and Wed close 512 are other potential targets with 512 closing a gap. Alternatively, if dip is bought, 521 is a potential long level. High call OI can lead to weakness in the afternoon if the stock doesn’t recover.