.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.17% Currencies: USA$ -.5% YEN +.81% BTC/USD +.34% Vix: 17.0

·         News:  USA: Empire mfg 830ET  

·         Stocks: AAPL -2.5% iPhone shipment data below expectations NVDA-1.7% SMCI -1.9% AI names pulling back post short squeeze MU -3% Industry DRAM forecast potentially topping plus AI fade INTC +1.7% $3.5B defense  deal
Overview: SPY 561.4 support 560 558 556.6 and resistance 565 SPY expected move +/- 5.4  QQQ 473.3 with resistance 475 477 480 support 470 468 expected move +/- 6. Premarket USA indices are mixed with IWM leading and QQQ lower. AI related stocks NVDA SMCI lower after the squeeze post Jensen comments Wed. Thurs and Fri were clear short squeezes with GS short basket up 7% on Friday so watch IWM, IPO for signs whether will continue today or not. Empire state mfg came in positive for first time in 2024 which is positive for the economy but potentially negative for a market fixated on massive rate cuts. Indices and many major names are extended after last week’s short squeeze that lifted SPY and QQQ twice the expected move. SPX is now positive gamma which means that market makers will sell rips and buy dips. SPX 5600 is the bull bear level to watch. With NVDA and AAPL weak, tech will be weak at least to the open and usual response is to bid up other sectors with financials a candidate. This week and next is historically weak with VIX expiration and tax payment occurring Wed along with FOMC and BOJ Thurs ergo some caution is a consideration with indices and some major stocks extended.

Expected moves SPY (567.4-556.6) QQQ (481.3-469.3) IWM (219.8-213.8) SPX (5680-5572)


Stocks to watch INTC, SLV, JPM, NVDA, AAPL, MU, QCOM Spec Names  SATS

Pre-800ET
Indices XBI, KRE, SLV, IWM, FXI, XLF, TLT, XLRE, EFA, XLI, EWC, ETHE, IBIT, UNG, SMH, XLK, MSOS, QQQ

S&P500 INTC, SLB, MU, AAPL, MOS, NVDA, SMCI, QCOM, AMAT, CL, AVGO

NASI AZN, INTC, MU, AAPL, SMCI, NVDA, SMCI, QCOM, AVGO, AMAT
All AZN, HLN, PBR, NVO, SLB, GH, UPST, BMRN, ELF, MU, STM, AAPL, MOS, MSTR, ARM, SMCI, NVDA, COIN, TEVA

Trade Idea: AAPL

AAPL has lagged the MAG7 leaders and today is weak on news that iPhone16 launch is underwhelming. Premarket close to lows from last week ~216.7 where it has bounced. It is currently down twice the daily expected move which is a potential bounce level or alternatively  can lead to a much larger move to the downside as one can see on the TRP chart. There is put positioning at 215 and 210 which can act as downside targets. Would expect a bounce due to short covering at the open that could be used as a short entry. A move above 220 will negate a short thesis and could make AAPL a tactical long with tight risk control.