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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.57% Currencies: USA$  -.03% YEN +..18% BTC/USD -1%  Vix: 18.9

·         News:  USA: FOMC rate decision 14ET

·         Stocks: GIS -1.8% EPS GOOGL +.8% won EU antitrust case; X+3.8% FTC decision delayed; 
Overview: SPY 563.9 support 563 560 557.4 and resistance 565 568.8  SPY expected move +/- 5.7 QQQ 474.6 with resistance 475 478.7 480 support 472 470 468.3 expected move +/- 5.2. Premarket USA indices are muted ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Foreign equities are weaker not providing positive momentum. Long yields are weaker and which is normally a negative for small caps. Mag7 are rising in the NY pre-market with GOOGL TSLA leading. Often S&P rises on FOMC day into noon and then pauses into 14ET release. Bond market is pricing a 60% probability of 50bps cut and is pricing in faster rate cuts than the FOMC dot plot currently projected. Risk today is a Fed that is less accommodating which will weigh on assets that have benefited from the projected slashing of rates which includes bonds, small caps, utilities, staples, foreign currencies. Volatility is elevated into the FOMC and will fall post which can lead to pops assuming SPX remains in positive gamma or 5600. There is downside risk below 5600 as market can flip into negative gamma which can lead to selling begetting selling. This week and next is historically weak with Vix expiration and tax payment occurring Wed along with FOMC and BOJ Thurs ergo some caution is a consideration with indices and some major stocks extended.

Expected moves SPY(568.8-557.4) QQQ (478.7-468.3) IWM(223.4-215.4) SPX (5691.6-5577.6)


Stocks to watch GOOGL, TSLA, X, SIRI, BLDR, IP, GIS, INTC Spec Names  LUNR

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, GDX, FXI, GLD, KWEB, $USD, KRE, ETHE, USO, TLT, IBIT, IWM

S&P500 GIS

NASI SIRI
All X, TGTX, VFC, SIRI, IBN, GFI, BEKE, BBVA, SMMT, HMY, PLTR, ASTS, BNTX, GIS

Trade Idea: SPY

Volatility is elevated into the FOMC event and will dissipate post release which can lift indices as puts below price lose value. SPX line in the sand is 5600 with bullish above and bearish below. Upside targets are  5700 and ultimately 5750.  Downside could be larger than what is currently priced in with 5500 a major level and should 5500 break, an explosion in volatility is possible. It’s not obvious to me what the reaction will be as pundits are divided on the impact of 25 vs 50bps cuts.  In general the beneficiaries of greater cuts has been small caps, homebuilders, retail, utes, bonds and speculative/high short interest names. These may be the losers with a 25bps cut and potential winners with 50bps. I am uncertain on the upside as the bond market has already priced in aggressive cuts and there is a potential for a sell the news on 50bps and disappointment with 25bps. Ergo take care today.