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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.35%  Currencies:  USA$  +.07% YEN -1.3% BTC/USD +.7%  Vix: 18.1

·         News:  USA: UE claims, Philly Fed 830ET; Existing home sales 10ET  UK: Held rates at 5%

·         Stocks: DRI+7.6%  EPS  
Overview: SPY 571 support 570 567 565 560 556.4 and resistance 575  SPY expected move +/- 5  QQQ 481.8 with resistance 485  support 480 475 472 470 465 expected move +/- 5.8. Global indices have surged since Wed 19ET post the FOMC meeting which was initially negative after FED cut rates 50bps. Catalyst was a sharp drop in the Yen which is worth watching with BOJ meeting tonight. US$ has fallen against most currencies which is boosting foreign stocks with China a big beneficiary with notion PBOC can now ease which is boosting metals and oil. Most stocks are higher with the lift in futures with outperformance by bitcoin, gold, semis, small caps. Indices are well above the daily expected move and SPY is at the top of the weekly expected move hence extended. SPX5700 is a major option level which may act as resistance with 5750 the level above (JPM collar). SPX will be opening at a level dominated by short calls with squeeze potential above or rejection and retracement. Long bonds are the loser which combined with higher commodities and a weaker US$ I interpret as the bond market viewing the FED move as inflationary. If the overnight action continues into the regular trading session the beneficiaries are commodities, and high short interest names (i.e. profitless tech and small caps). The large move down in the Yen is positive for the carry trade, hence MAG7 and semis. Caveat is the moves are already outsized hence chasing now and the BOJ is meeting tonight and move up in the Yen could be negative. With Opex Fri, usually there is higher volatility into end of week and next week. It’s typically a seasonally weak period but FED is not acting typically so need to keep your head on a swivel!

Expected moves SPY (566.4-556.4) QQQ (477.2-465.7) IWM(223.2-215.8) SPX (5668.3-5568.3)


Stocks to watch ETHE, AMD, NVDA, BABA, FCX, CCJ, TLT Spec Names  MBLY, UPST, MARA

Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, IBIT, SLV, KWEB, GDX, SMH, FXI, ARKK, IWM, KRE, XLK, USO, UNG, UUP, TLT

S&P500 DRI, FSLR, SMCI, ENPH, FCX, AMD, DHI, NCLH, CCL, NVDA, ABNB, HPE, VST, AVGO, TSLA 

NASI ASML, SMCI, DASH, AMD, MRVL, PDD, ABNB, AVGO,TSLA, QCOM, MU, META, TTD, CRWD, PYPL
All EWTX, MBLY, UPST, JD, BILI, AFRM, MSTR, MARA, BHP, BABA, COIN, U, RIO, ASTS, PGNY, DJT

Trade Idea: ROKU

Premarket all stocks are higher and most extended with the best performance by profitless tech. ROKU is a recovery name which is entering a volume gap where it can move quickly through. JPM raised price target to 90. 80 is a high call open interest level which can act as resistance or accelerate above hence consider long > 80. Caveat that ROKU is at the top of the weekly expected move hence may pullback or stall.