Swing Trade Idea – September 20, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.07% Currencies: USA$ +.12% YEN -.87% BTC/USD -.45% Vix: 18.1
· News: JP: No rate change, Yen down 1% CAD: Retail sales 830ET
·
Stocks: FDX-13%, LEN-3.5% EPS NKE+7.9% new CEO CEG+8.6% 20y MSFT
deal Downgrades: ASML FDX PEP VLO Upgrade DRI Metals:
CCJ+5.8% AU +2.4%
Overview: SPY 569 support 565 560 and resistance 570 573 575 SPY
expected move +/- 4.2 QQQ 483 with resistance 485 487.4 490 support 480 479
475 expected move +/- 4. USA and European indices are lower since Thurs
short squeeze but Asia is higher. USA led by DJIA with small caps lagging.
Macro neutral with long yields slightly higher and US$ flat. Yen has moved .8%
lower which is usually bullish for Nasi and precious metals which are strong
premarket. MAG7 are muted ex-GOOGL which is +1%. Semis are down slightly with
NVDA -.4%. FDX major earnings miss is weighing on UPS are for at least a micro
second can raise doubts regarding the strength of the economy. LEN is down
after beating expectations, watch other builders. Today is a massive options
expiration with $5.1T in notional expiring. Typically Sept Opex day is negative
for S&P500 and the week following is down 1%; however this has been an
atypical year. Indices remain extended and the move Thurs was primarily short
covering so some caution is an idea today with Opex potentially leading to
gyrations as large positions are closed or rolled.
Expected moves SPY(573.4-565) QQQ(487.4-479) IWM(226-222) SPX (5755.6-5671.6)
Stocks to watch ETHE, SLV, CEG, VST, GOOGL, CCJ, NVDA, FDX,
LEN Spec Names
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, SLV, GDX, GLD, KWEB, XLU, UNG, FXI, IBIT, SMH, IYT,
USO, SPY, XLK, EFA
S&P500 CEG, NKE, VST, NEM, CRWD, GOOGL, PEG, FDX, LEN, ON, GM
NASI CEG, CRWD,
GOOGL, ASML, ON
Trade Idea: KWEB
With some trepidation I offer KWEB as an idea. Asian stocks are outperforming SPY however China has been a laggard. Lower US$ is a catalyst for foreign stocks in general and will allow the PBOC to stimulate the economy. Longer term idea, more conservative to wait for a higher low and higher high; otherwise look for KWEB to take out 27.3 which was the recent high. Individual names: BABA PDD with the latter under a cloud due to USA govt action which is a generic risk with China.