Swing Trade Idea – September 23, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global
Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global
set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.3% Currencies: USA$ +.2% YEN +.24% BTC/USD -1.4% Vix: 17.8
· News: USA: PMI 745ET FOMC speakers 8, 1015 13ET EUR: Both MFG and services PMI weaker than expected with mfg very weak
·
Stocks: INTC+5.4% $5B Apollo Investment also QCOM rumored acq. SMCI-1.2% Still has
not filed 10k Uranium: Latest area being chased post CEG deal with MSFT.
Both miners and electrical utes big moves Fri and continuation premarket. CEG, VST,
SMR, CCJ, PEG
Overview: SPY 569 support 565 560 and resistance 570 571.5 573 575
SPY expected move +/- 3.3 QQQ 483 with resistance 485 486.5 support 480
478.3 475 expected move +/- 4.1. US indices are mildly positive led by small
caps as are global equities. Japan is closed which reduces liquidity. Long
yields are higher which is negative for REITS and UTES and continuing the
reaction to FOMC rate cut. Aggs in general are higher which is inflationary.
China PBOC providing stimulus is continuing to lift FXI and KWEB and stocks like
BABA. US$ is higher which in theory is negative but crypto is up but Silver,
Platinum. Palladium are down sharply. Nuclear power used to generate is the
narrative du jour post CEG and crowd is rushing in. MAG7 are led premarket by
META TSLA with MSFT lagging. XLK rebalance Fri led to NVDA MSFT selling and
AAPL buying so watch for the reaction today. Large Opex Fri removed a lot of
gamma with SPX5700 the bull/bear level, and may allow the S&P to make
larger moves. Use the daily expected move as levels which can lead to outsized
moves if breached.
Expected moves SPY(571.5-565) QQQ(486.5-478.3) IWM(223.8-219.4) SPX(5735-5670)
Stocks to watch ETHE, META, TSLA, INTC, TLT Uranium SMR, CEG,
VST, CCJ
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, UNG, FXI, IBIT, US$, IWM, KWEB, XBI, ARKK, SLV, XLRE,
XLU, TLT
S&P500 INTC, TSLA, MU, NKE
NASI INTC, TSLA,
MU
Other BHVN, SMR, MSTR, PLTR
Trade Idea: SMR
SMR is a HIGHLY speculative name in the nuclear space that provides small modular nuclear reactors. Small $1B company which is profitless with a 25% short float. This is a name in the nuclear electrical power generation space and far more risky than CEG VST PEG OKLO. Large call positions at 11 strike which can serve as resistance or acceleration above. There is alot of hair on the name but potential for a large move with a short squeeze