Swing Trade Idea – September 25, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.37% Currencies: USA$ -.03% YEN -.63% BTC/USD -1% Vix: 18.5
· News: USA: New home sales 10ET China: PBOC cut medium term rates and injected liquidity
·
Stocks: KBH-6% SFIX-25% EPS F-1.7% GM-3% downgrade FLUT+4.6% $5B
buyback over 3-4y
Overview: SPY 571 support 570 568 and resistance 572 573.8 SPY
expected move +/- 2.5 QQQ 484.8 with resistance 485 486.4 488.5 support
483 482.2 expected move +/- 3.2. Global indices are muted premarket with
USA indices mixed. Post Tues surge China on-shore names are higher but Hong
Kong names are pulling back. Commodities in general are giving back some of
Tues gains. Macro set-up is not positive with 30Y yield higher and US$ flat
inspite of a large drop in the Yen. No major econ data today so 0DTE in control
ahead of Thurs GDP/Powell. MAG7: AAPL down on negative analyst comments, NVDA
continuing the squeeze kicked off by Jensen saying he was done selling stock
for a while. MU is reporting earnings after the close and will be important for
the semi space. KBH is lower after missing profit forecasts but potential bounce play.
F
and
GM
were
downgraded. FLUT provided guidance and announced a $5B buyback which is lifting the
stock and DKNG. SPX5700 remains a good bull/bear level and 5750 a good upside
target into Sept30 Opex due to JPM collared ETF which rolls then. 5650 is a
good support level
Expected moves SPY(573.8-568.8) QQQ(488.5-482.2) IWM(222.1-218.6)
SPX(5758.3-5707.5)
Stocks to watch NVDA, DASH, FLUT, DKNG, AAPL, PDD, GM, KBH Speculative
SMMT,
DJT
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, XLU, MSOS, KRE, KWEB, FXI, USO, IBIT, ETHE, GDX, TLT
S&P500 HPE, GM, NOW, F, EXPE
NASI DASH, PDD
Other SMMT, DJT, FLUT, MNSO, HPE, PINS, DASH, NVO, UPST, PBR, DKNG, GDS, TCOM,
KBH, BILI, XPEV, JD, RIVN
Trade Idea: DKNG
DKNG is higher premarket after FLUT provided a longer term revenue plan and a $5B buyback. DKNG is another sports betting company that will benefit from seasonal sports betting factors. Premarket high 41.22 with 41.5 calls providing resistance so momentum long over or pullback > 40 (break out level). Longer term targets 45 and 50. Risk to sports betting stocks is legalization and tax changes by individual US states.