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  • Swing Trade Idea – September 25, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral  global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.37%  Currencies:  USA$  -.03% YEN -.63% BTC/USD -1%  Vix: 18.5

    ·         NewsUSA: New home sales 10ET China: PBOC cut medium term rates and injected liquidity

    ·         Stocks: KBH-6%  SFIX-25% EPS F-1.7% GM-3% downgrade FLUT+4.6% $5B buyback over 3-4y
    Overview: SPY 571 support 570 568 and resistance 572 573.8  SPY expected move +/- 2.5 QQQ 484.8 with resistance 485 486.4 488.5   support 483 482.2  expected move +/- 3.2. Global indices are muted premarket with USA indices mixed. Post Tues surge China on-shore names are higher but Hong Kong names are pulling back. Commodities in general are giving back some of Tues gains. Macro set-up is not positive with 30Y yield higher and US$ flat inspite of a large drop in the Yen. No major econ data today so 0DTE in control ahead of Thurs GDP/Powell. MAG7: AAPL down on negative analyst comments, NVDA continuing the squeeze kicked off by Jensen saying he was done selling stock for a while. MU is reporting earnings after the close and will be important for the semi space. KBH is lower after missing profit forecasts but potential bounce play. F and GM were downgraded. FLUT provided guidance and announced a $5B buyback which is lifting the stock and DKNG. SPX5700 remains a good bull/bear level and 5750 a good upside target into Sept30 Opex due to JPM collared ETF which rolls then. 5650 is a good support level
      
    Expected moves SPY(573.8-568.8) QQQ(488.5-482.2) IWM(222.1-218.6) SPX(5758.3-5707.5)


    Stocks to watch
    NVDA, DASH, FLUT, DKNG, AAPL, PDD, GM, KBH Speculative SMMT, DJT

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    UNG, XLU, MSOS, KRE, KWEB, FXI, USO, IBIT, ETHE, GDX, TLT

    S&P500 HPE, GM, NOW, F, EXPE

    NASI DASH, PDD
    Other SMMT, DJT, FLUT, MNSO, HPE, PINS, DASH, NVO, UPST, PBR, DKNG, GDS, TCOM, KBH, BILI, XPEV, JD, RIVN



     



    Trade Idea: DKNG

    DKNG is higher premarket after FLUT provided a longer term revenue plan and a $5B buyback. DKNG is another sports betting company that will benefit from seasonal sports betting factors. Premarket high 41.22 with 41.5 calls providing resistance so momentum long over or pullback > 40 (break out level). Longer term targets 45 and 50. Risk to sports betting stocks is legalization and tax changes by individual US states.

     

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