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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral+ global set-up

·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.18% Currencies: USA$ -.01% YEN +1.02% BTC/USD +0.02% Vix: 18.35

·         News:  USA: PCE 8:30 ET; Consumer sentiment 10:00 ET; EUR: CPI prints lower Japan: New PM, market likes

·         Stocks: COST-1% EPS BMY+3.5% drug approval
Overview: SPY 573 with support at 572 and 570, and resistance at 575 and 580; SPY expected move +/- 2.7.  QQQ 490.6 with resistance at 495 and 500, and support at 488 and 485; QQQ expected move +/- 5.1.  USA indices are neutral ahead of PCE data premarket and Consumer Sentiment data at 10:00 ET. China is continuing to stimulate which continues to lift China stocks and lift Europe and most of Asia.  PCE is considered the important data that the Fed watches so will be market moving. Options market is not pricing in a large move for PCE. SPX is being pinned by the huge 5750 JPM short call position that expires Monday. Expecting that with the roll of the position Monday, the SPX will be free to move and volatility can increase. As long as SPX remains above 5700 the direction is higher. A move below 5650 will flip dealers to be sellers. COST is slightly down on a revenue miss and worth watching for a reaction. COST valuation at a record high. Japan new PM Ishiba is deemed more hawkish and leading to Yen higher which is typically negative for MAG7 stocks due to the carry trade.  MAG7 are generally flat with TSLA outperforming and NVDA lagging.

**** 8:30 ET Core PCE 0.1% m/m vs 0.2%; Personal Income m/m 0.2% vs 0.4%; Personal Spending 0.2% vs 0.3% Indicates lower inflation and consumer slowing. Reaction: Indices and TLT higher. Canadian GDP 0.2% vs 0.1%

Expected moves SPY (575-569.6), QQQ (494.6-484.4), IWM (221.9-215.9), SPX (5772-5719)

Stocks to watch TSLA, Yen, IBIT, BMY, LVS, IWM, COST, DG, NVO, LLY 

Speculative MNSO, TMDX

Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, IBIT, USO, IWM, XLE, TLT, XLY, UNG, GDX, FXI, EFA, GLD

S&P500 BMY, LVS, ALB, WYNN, PYPL, HPQ, DG, SMCI, COST

NASI PYPL, COST, SMCI
Other TMDX, MNSO, TAL, TCOM, XPEV, BZ, BMY, ALV, LVS, EDU, ALB, SAVA, TRMD, NVO, HPQ, SMMT, DG, DELL, TSM, AU

Trade Idea: NVO

NVO is under pressure from USA govt due to the pricing of their GLP1 drug which has led to huge profits and large move higher in the stock price. NVO is at a major pivot level 120. Below 120 there are put positions at 118 and 116 which are targets for today. Longer term there is a scarcity of volume support until 110.  Stock is oversold so one can look for a failed bounce for a fade.