.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.15%  Currencies:  USA$  +.13% YEN -.07% BTC/USD -.09%  Vix: 15.8

·       News:  USA: ISM mfg 10ET CAD: Mfg PMI 930ET EUR: MFG PMI remains weak
Stocks: TSLA+1.2% China deliveries increased in Aug BA -4% downgrade and potential strike NVDA -2% pulling back with all semis. OpenAI is working on its own AI chip, IMO unlikely to compete with NVDA.

·       Overview: SPY 561.3 support 560 555 and resistance 565 567 SPY expected move +/- 3.4 QQQ 474 with resistance 477 480 support 472 470  expected move +/- 4. Global indices are risk-off post Friday late day EOM pop. USA indices are led to the downside by small caps and with US$ slightly higher is traditional risk-off. Notable weakness in semiconductors to start the week with NVDA leading to the downside. MAG7 strength in TSLA which has short squeeze potential and relative outperformance in MSFT, AMZN. META and GOOGL also underperforming. SPY is approaching the bottom of the daily expected move, which is a level where bounce or breakdown is expected. SPX 5600 has been defended and serves as a good bull-bear level. First day of the month usually has positive fund flows so looking for a bounce. ISM data at 10ET may be market moving with ideally an inline number. Volume will likely be lighter than average hence sharp intraday moves are very possible. Commodities are weaker mirroring weak China data with oil approaching recent lows in the trading range.
 
Expected moves SPY (567-560.3) QQQ (480.3-472.3) IWM (223.3-216.9) SPX (5682-5614)


Stocks to watch TSLA, NVDA, AMD, GOOGL Spec Names PCVX,

Pre-800ET
Indices VIX, TSLA, IBIT, UUP, TLT, COPX, NVDA, FXI, AMD, GDX, KWEB, IWM, XLK, EWC, META, GOOGL, XLB, AAPL

S&P500 LUV, TSLA, BA, FCX, SW, NVDA, PFE, ALB, CCL, MU, NCLH, SMCI, AMD, ON, INTC

NASI TSLA, NVDA, PDD, MU, ON, AMD, AVGO, INTC, AMAT
IWM PCVX, ARWR, ZETA, DYN, CLSK, GOGL, SMCI, MARA, HIMS

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA is pulling back premarket and is now below the low of earnings day. Large put positions at $115 set a level for bounce or breakdown lower with next major support at $110. Bounce resistance $117, $120. Semis are moving in sync so can use SMH to trade a bounce or breakdown in NVDA