.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral+  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.18% Currencies: USA$ -.12% YEN -.19% BTC/USD +0.02% Vix: 18.35

·         News:  USA: Powell 13:55; Dockworker strike potential tomorrow with estimated cost $4B China: PMI data weaker than expectations but stocks are reacting to potential of easing and not the state of the economy Japan: Industrial production -3.3% m/m vs -0.5% Yen is lower and Japanese index higher

·         Stocks: CCL earnings to be released AM  EPS STLA -13% guidance cut CVS+3% activist investor JPM -1.2% downgrade
Overview: SPY 570.1 support 570 568.8 565 and resistance 572 575 SPY expected move +/- 4 QQQ 485.1 with resistance 487 490 support 482.5 480 expected move +/- 4.3. USA, Europe are lower premarket with DIA a relative outperformer and IWM the relative laggard. China continues to short squeeze with Chinese stocks top of the leader board but are very extended. Today is the end of the quarter which means there will be rebalances and in particular adjustment to structured ETFS. Famous JPM collared ETF will be rolling the 5750 short call position today which is significant as it has been pinning the SPX and roll will allow the index to move and for volatility to increase. Potential dockworker strike is a risk event which would damage the USA economy if it occurs. SPX5700 remains an important bull-bear level to watch with a break of 5650 risk-off. MAG7 are generally weak ex-AAPL which is a potential safety trade today. Semis are weak premarket led by NVDA which is close to the bottom of the daily expected move with 118 a key support level. STLA cut guidance is weighing on F and GM with concern being China EV competition. Dockworker strike could be positive for air freight companies e.g. FDX. should strike occur today. Powell speaking today 13:55 potentially market moving.

Expected moves SPY(575.5-567.5) QQQ(491-482.5) IWM(223.5-217.1) SPX(5778-5698)


Stocks to watch AAPL, PDD, NVDA, AMD Speculative MNSO, BEKE,

Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, FXI, MSOS, US$, IBIT, ETHE, SMH, SLV, GDX, IWM, USO, XLK, ARKK, XBI

S&P500 CVS, EL, T, CCL,  GM, F, ON, NVDA, AMD, INTC, TXN, MU, AVGO, AMAT, FCX

NASI PDD, ON, NVDA, AMD, INTC, TXN, GFS, MRVL, MU, AVGO, AMAT, SMCI
Other BEKE, MNSO, TAL, JD, STLA, MSTR, CLSK , GM, COIN, CORZ, HMY, NVO,
 

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA has pulled back premarket to close to the bottom of the daily expected move. There are reports that threat of US sanctions is urging Beijing urging local companies to avoid NVDA.  Premarket 118.2 with a hedge wall at 118 which can lead to a bounce or acceleration to 115. Hence todays idea is a straddle idea with fade < 118 and longs on confirmed bounce > 118. With NVDA down premarket a bounce on the open is expected so watch for behavior around VWAP. Note semis SMH/SOXX will move in tandem with NVDA today. Its a quarterly expiration today so may see some jerky market action.