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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neural – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – slight negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.8% Currencies: USA$ -.17% YEN +.5% BTC/USD +.72%  Vix: 19.9

·       News:  USA:  Empire state mfg 830ET Canada: CPI 830ET

·       Stocks: BAC+2%, GS+2.9%, C+2.2%, SCHW+9.3%, JNJ-1.2%, UNH-3.3% EPS BAC beat expectations but revenue growth 1% Y-Y IMO bank stocks are moving on less bad. SCHW client assets +27% y-y.  BA +1% shield offering
NVDA-.8%, AMD -1.1% USA Govt discussing restricting sales to middle east. Will impact SMH and question is whether they will buy the dip. USO -4% Israel say won’t strike Iran energy WOLF+29% $2B chips act funding 
Overview: SPY 584.5  support 581.8 580 and resistance 585 586.8 SPY expected move +/- 2.5 QQQ 497.7 with support 495 494.4 resistance 500  expected move +/- 3.1. Global indices are weak premarket with Japan and Canada reopening. China stocks in particular are being hit hard premarket assume due to perception of less stimulus which is negatively impacting commodities and Europe as well. USA indices are flat with IWM lagging and S&P leading. Bank earnings are resulting in positive moves which is beneficial to S&P500 vs Nasi. Actual results indicate very low growth but market just cares about beats vs absolute results (for now). Israel saying that they wont bomb Iranian oil has led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a move higher in long bonds as oil is a major cause of inflation and of course airlines. GOOGL is talking small nuclear reactors and giving a bid to the companies in the space (check out my weekly report for names). NVDA AMD are reacting to another statement from the WH on restrictions on selling AI chips. If NVDA is sold today the machines will buy some other MAG7 with leading candidates AAPL and GOOGL. Market should be supported today due to gamma positioning with risk increasing Wed morning with Vix expiration.

Expected moves SPY (586.8-581.8) QQQ (500.6-494.4) IWM (224.6-221.2) SPX (5884.9-5834.9)


Stocks to watch AAPL, GOOGL, SCHW, OKLO, TLT, UAL, USO, NVDA, AMD Speculative WOLF, DJT 

Pre-800ET
Indices TLT, UNG, XLF, XLU, KRE, XLRE, XLC, US$, USO, KWEB, FXI, XLE, SMH, SLV, SMH

S&P500 SCHW, GS, AAL, CCL, C, UAL, DAL, BAC, AAPL, BA, STX, ETSY, UNH, APA, SLB, FANG, LVS, MRO, FCX, EL, ENPH

NASI SIRI, MRVL, AAPL, PDD, FANG, ARM, NVDA
Other WOLF, DJT, SCHW, OKLO, ASX, LTH, DOCS, SPHR, GS, AAL, SIRI, FL, BAC, UAL, MSTR, CDNA, BILI, JD, FUTU, UNH, BABA, NE, BP, EQNR, MNSO, TCEHY, EH, GCT, HUM

Trade Idea: TLT

TLT is a bounce idea with long yields stretched and oil prices falling.  If indices can become softer in the next week, may also get a lift in TLT. Potential bounce to 97-98. Risk limit is prior lows.