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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neural – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.21%  Currencies:  USA$  -.1% YEN +.1% BTC/USD -0.94%  Vix: 18.95

·       News:  USA:  Retail Sales, UE claims 830ET Industrial Production 915ET EUR: ECB expected 25bps rate cut, CPI 1.7% y/y China: GDP 22ET 

·       Stocks: TSM+8.8%  TRV+5.8%   CSX-4.3% EFX-3.4% ELV-11.4%  EPS  TSM earnings beat lifting NVDA and semi sector. Rumor UBER-3.7% acquiring EXPE+4.8%;
Overview: SPY 585 support 578.3 582 580 579 and resistance 585.4 590 SPY expected move +/- 3.1 QQQ 495.5  with support 493 490 488   resistance 498 expected move +/- 2.7. Global indices are mixed with Europe higher, China lower and USA higher. USA indices are mixed with QQQ above the daily expected move and IWM lower. Catalyst for QQQ is the TSM earnings report which met revenue but raised 2025 revenue guidance and following ASML warning has reinvigorated the semi trade led by NVDA. Bears are getting smoked this morning. SPY is close to the top of the daily expected move and QQQ is above which can result in either a reversal or a run away break out. Whenever NVDA runs it tends to drag all the semis with it with caveat that 140 is a major level for NVDA where it can break out or get rejected. Note: US retail sales will be released 830ET and Industrial Production 915ET which can move markets. ECB cut rates by 25bps as expected. The conference call later in the day may be market moving.

Expected moves SPY(585.4-579.2) QQQ(493.6-488.2) IWM(228.5-224.9) SPX(5873-5811)


Stocks to watch TSM, NVDA, ARM, ELV Speculative WOLF, DJT 

Pre-800ET
Indices SMH, XLK, QQQ, GDX, SPY, UNG, KWEB, FXI, IBIT, IYT, TLT

S&P500 LRCX, SMCI, NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, AMD, VST, UBER, CSX

NASI ARM, LRCX, SMCI, NVDA, AMAT, MU, PDD
Other TSM, HMY, WOLF, AA, ARM, DJT, BEKE, BILI, SEDG, LI, OKLO, JD, SMR, MSTR, MARA
 

Trade Idea: TSM

TSM is the worlds largest semi mfg. Earnings were in line but guidance was raised for 2025 which has fueled the rally above the expected move which means it can potentially run. Momentum long > 205 with target 210 and higher. Pullback > 200 is a potential dip buy but a move < 200 may indicate that the bounce is being sold. Stock is very extended short term indicating shorts are being squeezed.