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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neural – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +0.53%  Currencies:  USA$  -.05% YEN +.25% BTC/USD -.6%  Vix: 18.9

·         News:  USA: ADP jobs 233k vs 110k; GDP q/q 2.8% vs 3% Price index q/q 1.8% vs 1.9% 830ET 

·         Stocks:   QRVO-19.6%, LLY-10.5%, AMD-8.2%, FSLR-7.4%, CDM-6%, CAT-2.8%, CZR-2.8%,  RDDT+19.7%, GOOGL+6.7%, CAKE+5.6%, XPO+4%, V +2.3%  EPS  SMCI -22% auditor resignation, they have not filed 10k yet

·         Overview: SPY 582  support 580 578.3  and resistance 585, SPY expected move +/- 3.5;  QQQ 500.75  with support 500 495   resistance 502 504.4 505 expected move +/- 4.3. USA indices pulling back in NY premarket trading. Europe and China trading lower but Japan higher is a mixed global set-up and USA indices are flat with small caps lagging. Bond yields lower is a positive. ADP jobs data was better than expected which is a positive read into Fri non-farm payroll but negative for FED rate cuts to support employment. Advanced GDP was slightly lower than expected.  Earnings: Semis are lower post reports from AMD (missed earnings)  and QRVO (light guide and major AAPL supplier). GOOGL beat is lifting hyperscalers AMZN MSFT and associated cloud names like TTD, CRWD, and even power names like OKLO, SMR. LLY miss will affect NVO, VKTX, GLP1 names and potentially other big pharma.  

Expected moves SPY(585.3-578.3), QQQ (504.4-495.9), IWM (223.4-220), SPX (5867.9-5797.9)

Stocks to watch GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT,  SMCI, AMD, NVDA, CAT, LLY  Speculative OKLO, RDDT, GRMN

Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, XLC, USO, TLT, XLE, US$, FXI, KWEB, SMH, XLV, SLV, UNG, EFA, IBIT, XLK, FEZ

S&P500 GRMN, GOOG, TECH, SW, FMC, V, META, AMZN, VMC, MSFT, ITW, ABBV, QRVO, LLY, AMD, CDW, SWKS, DVA, FSLR, OTIS, CMG, KHC, QCOM, CZR, CAT, BAC, ENPH, HUM

NASI GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, BIIB, TTD, CRWD, FANG, EXC, DDOG, AMD, CDW, KHC, ASML, QCOM, ARM, AMAT, NXPI, PDD, AMGN,
Other RDDT, SNAP, OKLO, DQ, ENVX, JKS, SMR, LLY, FLEX, IONQ, DJT, VKTX, GSK, CMG, MSTR,

 

 

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA is pulling back with AMD earnings miss and reduced guidance. Major customer SMCI is being investigated for reporting irregularities which is potentially weighing on NVDA.  Typically NVDA bounces on every dip and a long trigger would be 140 but a fade can be considered < 138 with 135 target.  GOOGL report indicated continued spending on AI which in theory is not a negative for NVDA however general selling of semis can take it lower.